Blog - BeSomebodyFX

April 5, 2022April 5, 2022

Crypto Global Macro Q2 2022

BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q2 2022

FED tigthening, 50bps rate hikes, quantitative tightening, global growth slowing down, it all matters for the crypto market

A crypto global macro update? That’s a new one, isn’t it?

Yes, it’s time we start discussing some crypto too, we have always done it in private with the Private Network members, but I feel it’s time to do some public discussions on the field as well.

We’ll do these crypto global macro updates at the start of every quarter, and ideally it will have everything you need to make some solid longer term decisions for your crypto portfolio.

We won’t be going into the very details of our positionings in crypto because our exact trade details with frequent updates are exclusive for the Private Network members, but you will get the important context.

If reading isn’t your thing you can jump straight to the bottom of this page where we’ll do a brief summary, but you will miss out on some educational and informational stuff, just saying.

Anyhow…

It’s an extremely interesting time for classic markets and crypto because the current macro conditions are setting up the stage for some (more) volatility.

Geopolitical tensions, inflation getting slightly out of control, a FED ready to do “whatever it takes” and recession talks already populating some institutional notes.

Wait, does all this matter for crypto?

Oh, yes…

BTC is the future, no doubt… but speculatively speaking it’s just an extremely high beta asset, in other words, a more volatile S&P500.

The FED drives the boat… in crypto, too.

So now comes the point…

Where are we at with the FED’s monetary policy cycle?

I know you know already, or at least you SHOULD know, but let’s do a brief recap anyway:

The FED is raising interest rates, is expected to raise rates faster (50bps) and is expected to start quantitative tightening in May.

Wait… what is quantitative tightening? See HERE.

And is it us just fantasizing about the FED’s monetary policy moves going forward?

No, we listen to the FED’s committee:

That’s called forward guidance.

The most important power of CBs is forward guidance, their talking, their managing of expectations.

CBs are big tanks, so it takes a while for them to move. Hence before they can act pragmatically, they act verbally.

But wasn’t this a CRYPTO global macro article? So why we talking central banks?

Anything that moves and that can be traded is influenced by central banks’ monetary policy. If you are buying BTC at any given price and any given moment just because “crypto is the future” you are doing it wrong…

Ask who didn’t take some profit in 2017 when the FED started quantitative tightening.

Or ask who didn’t take some profit in November 2021 when the FED started tapering.

Your crypto portfolio can do much better if you follow the macro environment.

With that said, let’s talk some crypto…

And you probably guessed it already, this is a bit of a bearish note here.

But let me explain…

The FED is about to hike rates by 50bps in May, announce the reduction of liquidity from the financial system (quantitative tightening) at the same FOMC and is also likely going to deliver another 50bps hike in June.

So, are we bearish crypto?

We should, but we don’t like to be bearish crypto…

We like to be dip buyers, and the point we are trying to make here is that there will be (most likely) better levels to do so going forward.

This doesn’t mean BTC can’t have some bounces here and there.

In the short term we expect a tactical push towards 50k…

But those types of rallies are likely to be met with strong sellers at one point or another, and dips WON’T be met with strong buyers UNTIL the macro conditions become favorable again.

That is to say…

Bounces will happen, yes… but the next major bull run to 100k and beyond needs the macro conditions to be favorable to truly start.

The “volatility” is FAR from over and ATHs will be hard to achieve with a quantitative tightening regime starting in May.

Here are THE points to keep in mind:

The real growth slowdown has YET to start, all we have seen so far is just a glimpse of volatility…

The impact of the recent geopolitical developments in energy prices has YET to hit the economy, and crypto is NOT a safe haven.

The CPI and the economic numbers we are seeing right now are NOT representatives of the huge surge in energy and commodity prices post Ukraine invasion.

Meaning the FED will be faced with even higher inflation numbers that will persuade them to go ahead with aggressive tightening with 50bps hikes and QT operations starting from May.

And in all this, Global PMIs (one of our favorite leading indicators) over the next couple of Quarters are likely to head into contraction territory.

In it itself this wouldn’t be bearish crypto, but the aggressive tightening from the FED coupled with global growth slowing is a recipe for OUTFLOWS from risk assets such as crypto.

So, here’s the conclusion and the key takeaway you should bring home from this crypto global macro update:

The REAL buying opportunity across the board in crypto has YET to come.

So far the FED is in bulldozer mode, ready to smash everything in order to bring inflation back to “acceptable” levels.

Let that be, don’t fight the FED…

Then, when the committee decides to… stop tightening, then, at that point, the boat can be loaded with crypto for the next bull run to 100k and beyond.

That’s all there’s to say, the KEY takeaway?

Don’t buy the dip too early, don’t FOMO at resistance, there will be new lows made in crypto before new ATHs, watch the FED.

I hope you found this a valuable read, and if you didn’t… that probably means you bought BTC at 60k.

Nothing wrong with that as long as you have a wide enough time horizon…

The time for BTC and the whole crypto market to break to new highs will come, there’s no question about it.

But purely based on the current and upcoming global macro conditions, it’s NOT that time yet.

We will update it with a new crypto global macro in the first week of Q3. You may want to leave us your email down below to get alerted when we publish it.

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

April 4, 2022April 4, 2022

Introduction to central banks and monetary policy

BESOMEBODYFX

CENTRAL BANKS AND MONETARY POLICY

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

CENTRAL BANKS AND THEIR MONETARY POLICies

CENTRAL BANKS AND THEIR MONETARY POLICIES ARE CORE DRIVERS OF FX AND ALL ASSETS TRENDS, LET’S SEE HOW

The best way to start a discussion about central banks and monetary policy is with this quote from the legendary Stanley Druckenmiller:

It’s liquidity that moves markets…

That’s a solid starting point, now let’s get more technical:

The FED adjusts “liquidity” with… monetary policy, or more specifically, the balance sheet:

Now, a central bank can add or reduce liquidity…

The injection of liquidity into markets is the so called Quantitative Easing (QE) while the reduction of it is the so called Quantitative Tightening (QT).

QE is done to stimulate the economy, stimulate inflation…

While QT is done to do the exact opposite, to start putting a cap on what could be an “overheating” economy.

But enough theory, let’s see how practically this applies to markets and FX specifically.

Let’s start with Quantitative Easing (QE) first…

QUANTITATIVE EASING:

The FED implements QE when they need to stimulate inflation and economic growth. In simple QE is literally the injection of liquidity into the economy, the so called “money printing”.

What happens to the domestic currency when a central bank prints more of it?

Basic economics 101 here… it devaluates.

Here’s the us dollar index during qe4:

That is the FX impact, USD weakness… but obviously, this goes way beyond that.

Because QE programs create some of the best bull market opportunities.

All risk assets rise, as economic growth is stimulated PMIs bottom (see here what it means) and reflationary themes pick up steam. We are talking about higher commodity prices, higher GOLD, and all those good stuff.

And by the way, just to be precise…

The FED runs the party in crypto too:

Central banks with monetary policy dictate most of the crypto cycles as well, something to have well in mind.

Anything that moves and that can be traded… is influenced by central banks’ monetary policy, particularly the FED.

Quantitative Tigthening:

So… we have stimulated economic growth and inflation enough with QE and low interest rates… now how do we halt and lower inflation?

By tightening financial conditions, lowering asset prices, and increasing the value of the domestic currency, in other words, engineering a growth slowdown to restart the cycle.

How? Quantitative Tightening (QT) and rate hikes are your tools…

While QE is the injection of liquidity into the markets, QT is the exact opposite and as a result, the exact opposite effect is created with the strengthening of the domestic currency:

Good, we have covered some basics here…

Understanding the FED’s balance sheet and the various monetary policy regimes is quite useful, NOT only for longer term trades, but for shorter term ones too.

When you know the longer term “path of least resistance” according to the macro bias, you get more accuracy and harmony in your shorter term trades by going with the flow, rather than against it.

In other words… “don’t fight the FED” long term, nor short term.

But… for longer term trades, does this mean you just go in and sell USD when QE starts and buy USD when QT starts?

You could…

But NO… that’s just one piece of the puzzle, read THIS to get a grasp of what composes a complete institutional trading framework.

To conclude, remember Druckenmiller’s quote:

“It’s liquidity that moves markets.”

Obviously, the central banks’ discussion goes above and beyond just QE and QT. There are rate hikes, rate cuts, and other monetary policy tools to be discussed.

But that becomes more complex and articulated to discuss in a simple blog post, the best way to learn about everything, as we always repeat, is to actually experience it with the right minds around you, make sure you are around professional traders, and take notes.

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

November 8, 2021April 4, 2022

Introduction to macro fundamentals trading

BESOMEBODYFX

INTRODUCTION TO MACRO FUNDAMENTALS

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

TRADING MACRO FUNDAMENTALS

How to start learning macro fundamentals trading? let’s see an example of a macro trading framework

Now, the second most asked question is “how do I get started with macros?” “what trading macro fundamentals is about?“

In the previous post we have discussed the average global macro fund framework, but we haven’t really discussed anything practical to trading.

So here we are…

Let’s talk about some practical macroeconomics theories to get you started in the right direction…

What we are going to illustrate here is a very simple, yet very powerful, macro concept that you can use in your trading to gauge the long term directions of ANY asset.

Now, if you have ever gone around the web trying to study economic indicators and the impact they have on FX or any market, you can think about all that, and throw it away…

Really… you DON’T need to keep track of dozens of economic indicators for each country…

Great… So let me show you something practical.

For this specific example we are going to take one leading indicator and ONE only.

Not dozens of indicators, nothing too complext, just one simple graph:

Among the most powerful leading indicators we have Purchasing Managers’ Index, or shorter, PMIs.

Which you can see in the chart above.

Looks good. but how do you actually read it? rising is good and falling is bad for the currency?

No, FORGET that…

That’s your average trading guru on Youtube trying to sound smart with newbies.

The reality is, with PMIs and almost any indicator as a whole what matters is understanding the cycles:

Right click the image and select “open in image in a new window to zoom in“

Looks good…

But it’s still just theory…

How do you generate a possible trade from this?

that’s A GOOD question, AND HERE’S THE GOOD answer:

With PMIs we can differentiate between 3 phases of the ISM cycle…

The expansion phase, the peak phase, and the contraction phase.

Each phase creates a specific macro environment that generates specific returns for different assets.

For the sake of the example I’m going to illustrate the three most popular ones, DXY (USD) S&P500 and GOLD in this table:

But let’s actually see a chart…

Here’s EURUSD and how it behaves with the various PMIs tops and bottoms:

Now, let’s get even more practical…

Would it be pretty useful to know the FX, commodities, and indices trends for the next 3 to 6 months, wouldn’t it?

Yes it would… So let me show you exactly how.

Let’s take for instance, the recent global PMIs chart:

As of June 2021 (chart above) global PMIs are peaking, that’s pretty clear just by undertanding how the cycles work, after an expansion, the peaking phase naturally, sooner or later, comes.

And anyway…

We know given the current macro context that they should continue to move gradually lower going forward.

What’s the trade in this environment?

That’s all…

We know the regime is “ISM peaking“, and it’s specifically the “early peaking regime“.

And because of that, we understand that this specific macro context favors USD longs.

Thus we know that in July and August 2021 the “favorite” trades will be to be long Dollars, period.

Then in a couple of months the environment may change back to expansion or whatever, we don’t know that YET.

But we know that, for the time being, PMIs are in an “early peaking” phase and based on that specific macro environment you know exactly what trades will be favorite.

To Conclude…

We are making it sound easier than it is here…

But if understand this type of thinking you will be ahead of 90% of traders out there that trade randomly without any idea of what’s happening in the markets on a macro level.

Now, don’t forget:

“The market doesn’t move in a straight line, pullbacks in macro trends are natural, periods of counter trend flows are perfectly normal. Use them to your advantage to get the best entries for your trades.”

Hopefully I delivered a point here, now certainly we have ultra oversimplified here. We could have gone into more details but talking about these subjects in a simple post wouldn’t be impactful enough for one to understand how important and powerful they are.

The best way to learn and PROPERLY understand these macro theories is to experience it with the right people on your side that guide you and educate you on what’s happening in the markets at every moment in time.

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

November 8, 2021April 4, 2022

Introduction to an institutional trading framework

BESOMEBODYFX

GLOBAL MACRO TRADING FRAMEWORK

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

HOW DO INSTITUTIONS TRADE?

INTRODUCTION TO the average INSTITUTIONAL TRADING FRAMEWORK…

One of the most asked question in the trading field out there is “how do institutions trade?” “How does an institutional trading strategy look like?”

It feels like one of those top trading secret, it feels like it’s a hidden method that only the elite can know…

Well, it’s not that big of a secret at all, most actually make their framework public so that investors and people interested in working with them can know exactly how they generate returns.

For instance, here’s how the usual global macro fund trading framework looks like:

If you come from a retail education, if you come from the average Youtube trading guru you will find the model above absolute nonsense…

And that’s a good point…

How many traders do you think use that type of trading approach? Maybe 10% or so?

Right, how many use the “Youtube guru” trading approach, meaning only technical analysis and indicators? at least 90% right?

Yes, ever heard of the fact that 90% of traders can’t trade profitably and only 10% do?

Can you spot the pattern here?

The 90% is all fed with the same type of information and education that doesn’t work UNLESS applied only in a complete and more defined framework similar to the one above. So let’s talk about that…

TO MAKE IT SIMPLE, There is ONE core difference between an improvised retail trader and a professional institutional trader.

Usually the average retail generates his trade ideas from the chart (technical analysis) and then eventually looks for some random fundamental to support his trade:

Meanwhile, the professional trader generates his trades ideas OUTSIDE the chart (macro fundamentals) and then uses the chart (technical analysis) to confirm his idea and time his entry:

That’s the core difference between a retail and an institutional trader, not a secret approach, not a special indicator, just the correct way to see the market. In other words, a specific framework that answers your questions about where the market is going, something like this.

Now let me tell you a little secret…

Hedge funds that don’t use technical analysis tend to underperform the ones that do use technical analysis to complement their macro researches.

Yes, you read right… Global macro hedge funds that only trade on macros tend to underperform global macro hedge funds that also apply some technical analysis.

But why is that?

Let me show you again the average global macro fund framework:

A professional “institutional” trading framework has technical analysis in it. Because it helps you time your macro idea, enter at a good price, get a good risk reward, and in addition eventually even filter what could be a misplaced trade idea.

In other words, technical analysis has a role, and it’s quite an important one, but it only comes in the gatekeeping phase. Technical analysis is NOT used to generate trade ideas, a professional institution/trader doesn’t look at a chart and says:

“This looks bullish, look it’s sitting at support, let me buy some…”

That’s the fallacy of the retail industry…

And it’s the fault of the laziness of the average Instagram and Youtube trading guru that knows technical analysis is easier for a newbie to understand than macro fundamentals. Hence to get his views and clicks he goes for the technical content.

And there you have a crowd of uneducated technical retail traders thinking the “smart money concept” taught on Youtube is how banks and institutions trade. Don’t be that retail, walk outside the box and trade professionally.

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

January 3, 2021March 27, 2024

Performance Recap

BESOMEBODYFX

PRIVATE NETWORK PERFORMANCE

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

PERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION

Alright, it’s time to recap the performance of the BeSomebodyFX Private Network inception to date.

Performance, so, let’s begin with mine…

You may not know, we are 2 traders in the Private Network, there is me doing medium term trades and Sean doing longer term trades.

Let’s begin with me:

I’m up around 85% since inception, with an average of 1.3% a month with a max drawdown of 6%.

The whole Private Network focuses on capital protection first, so first we make sure the account is well protected and safe and then we watch at the profits.

With a 6% drawdown, I’m pretty satisfied with the results.

But let’s see some in-depth stats for the account:

Average win of about 140 pips, and average loss of about 120 pips, with total pips gained 6120, in total a win rate of about 50%.

It’s nothing special and spectacular but it’s enough to have consistent stable profits while protecting the capital.

And now let’s see Sean’s data:

As you can see Sean has a much better profit to drawdown ratio.

And not only that, his stats are much better overall:

Average win of about 1160 pips and loss of 263 pips, win rate is ONLY 43%, which is the true representation of the power of risk reward, you don’t need a high win rate when you let the profits run and cut the losses quickly.

But it’s not everything.

Because Sean has some focus on stocks as well.

And with stocks I mean mostly the S&P500.

And so here is his performance there too:

I can just congratulate to him and be proud and happy that he is part of the team.

He truly is a gem and his trading style is fantastic.

Sean shares his reports every sunday, then he shares the details of his pending orders to set when the market opens and that’s it, done for the week.

After that, the trades are not touched during the week…

Literally, the pending orders are set at the beginning of the week with the various details (stop loss and take profit) and that’s it, he is done for the whole week.

That is what trading is all about in my opinion, the ability to make decent profit without much effort.

The real “work smart, not hard”.

I’m different from him, I’m a market junky…

Hence I love to monitor markets day in and day out, and I definitely envy his ability to just set and forget trades for the whole week and actually outperform me.

Anyway, you can check his live up to date performance anytime here on this link:

Sean’s page.

Alright, let’s get back to the Private Network performance.

We have to mention the crypto portfolio as well, and I am proud to say that the portfolio is up about 250% since inception.

Obviously, crypto being more volatile yields higher returns, but we DON’T short term trade it, usually.

We just ride the large macro trends in crypto, we did it with the bull market in 2020 and 2021, and we took profit and went defensive with before the bear market in 2022, to then turn long again in early 2023.

We buy and sell crypto unleveraged on various exchanges, which means I can’t show you any proven track record the same way we did above with the FX trades.

But I like to be transparent and show something real and practical rather than just fancy words.

Therefore given that we don’t have the stats of the crypto portfolio because the exchanges can’t be connected to myfxbook. I thought why not share a few of the analysis that show you how we caught the large macro trends:

https://mailchi.mp/2d0f830d64a4/the-next-crypto-bull-run-its-around-the-cornerr

We like to send email notes like this one above to the Private Network members.

The email notes like the ones above are sent to explain in every detail our thoughts behind our core trades.

And of course on top of the fundamental explanation of the trades we also alert on every trade we take, so trade entries are shared in real time on the private Telegram channel.

The last performance worth noting:

We have one last thing to share, a tool that since its inception in 2020 has outperformed both me and Sean combined

It’s the smart money index tool on the besomebodyfxterminal.com

Yes, a small strategy we put together that is semi automated that shows when it’s safe to buy the S&P500 dips after a deep correction…

I don’t want to bore you with all the technicalities so if you want to check how it’s built and the whole performance, here is the link:

https://besomebodyfxterminal.com/how-to-use-the-smart-money-index/

To conclude:

We have mentioned everything, this is how the Private Network is doing since inception.

But I want to take a moment to puntualize that the Private Network is MUCH more than just signals.

Because we share all our thought process to come up with a trade, and we share all our exclusive market researches.

Any decent trader can easily outperform us just by following our email notes and insights shared in the private Telegram channel and eventually even get better entries than the ones we share.

And not only that, I’m a very conservative trader so I risk even less than 1% a trade.

In other words,, the performance you see in my account is for the performance of a very risk averse trader.

And for instance, a more risk tolerant one could easily increase the performance by taking 2% of risk per trade, or 3% and so on.

I hope this kinda makes sense for everybody, the more you risk the higher the reward but the higher the risk as well.

As I was saying the Private Network is much more than just signals but we would be here hours if I wanted to list all the benefits of the Network so I guess I will just leave it to the reviews:

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

September 21, 2020January 2, 2021

Building the case for some temporary Dollar strength

BESOMEBODYFX

USD STRENGTH NEXT?

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

BUILDING THE CASE FOR SOME TEMPORARY DOLLAR STRENGTH

I KNOW THE MAJORITY IS DOLLAR BULLISH SO THIS POST WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY OF YOU…

After we have been Dollar bears for months it’s now time to gradually shift bias heading into the elections, BUT… Only temporarely.

Let me show you what we see:

It all starts with the FOMC meeting last week.

The FED there has not given us Dollar bears anything to get excited about, the only thing that right now in the very short term could further weaken the Dollar is more QE but no signs of that at the moment, the FED story is stale and their balance sheet has not grown since June:

As we can see from the chart above the ECB balance sheet is still growing while the FED one has been stalled since June.

Also, we are probably right at the front edge of where traders (and risk managers) start to worry about the US election.

And this is beginning to be very clear looking at the CFTC data:

We can see that asset managers and speculators are slowly beginning to take profit on Dollar shorts heading into the elections and this trend is likely to continue the closer the election day gets.

There is a remarkable tendency for fear to build and volume to rise about 4 to 6 weeks before events, even events that have been on the calendar for years like an election day.

But let’s talk practical, here is how historically the Dollar performs heading into the elections:

So in the image above we can see the Dollar performance from Sept 23 to Nov 6 since the 2000s, and highlighted in yellow are the election years.

All years but one (2004), since the new millennium started have seen Dollar strength heading into the elections.

And…

This is an old chart (from early September) but EURUSD is still in the same range and the only thing that has changed here is that Trump has gained more approvals… so we get the picture .

So here we begin to see how practically some Dollar relief begins to make sense:

Shorts are overextended and beginning to take profit
Usually heading into the elections the Dollar tends to appreciate (likely caused by market hedging)
The FED in the very short term doesn’t have much else to offer
FED balance sheet stalled and no more QE until further notice while ECB one still growing
An ECB that is worried about EURUSD above 1.20 and ready to jawbone it lower
Trump approvals rising and that’s positively correlated with the Dollar

EURUSD is of course the best expression of straight USD views these days, and EURUSD longs are still out there overstretched, so just some profit taking from asset managers ahead of the elections will push EURUSD lower.

The most important level here I feel it’s the line in the sand put by ECB Lane’s when he said the famous words “EUR matters”, price never came back to that level, and if it does come back there and nothing has changed since this post then we will be there ready to short.

Another important level is the Q3 open price that has been supporting price for a while now and that has worked wonderfully for our longs recently, so a DAILY close below that will be interesting as well.

This is our idea generation process, which is the process where we do our researches to build a trade idea, we now move into the gatekeeping phase which is where we look at the charts to give us the best entry and to confirm our view.

This above is just a small part of what we do, we now begin the process of looking at retail activity, looking at the news flow and more to give us that extra confirmation that we need to deploy capital with confidence.

We send our confirmation and further researches to our Private Network members and as always, on top of that, we send them the exact details of our trades so that they can follow our performance.

Like this:

That’s how we do it in the Private Network, if you have any question you can hit the chat button on the bottom right or send us a message on telegram, we are ALWAYS available to answer your questions and to help you out.

Have a great day.

September 13, 2020September 13, 2020

Third trading quiz results

BESOMEBODYFX

QUIZ RESULTS...

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

Trading quiz results and answer explanations...

It’s sunday and it’s f1 race day so let’s make it quick 😉

The first 4 questions are the most boring ones but bear until the OIL questions, those will maybe teach you something…

Anyway let’s begin, and let’s be quick because as i said in a few hours there is the Mugello F1 race

Average inflation targeting…

It’s the hot topic at the moment…

So the majority answered correctly here but I see there has been some confusion between letting inflation above 2% or not accepting it above.

The not accepting it above would have been a very hawkish message from the FED but what’s happening now is the exact opposite, the FED is sending a clear dovish message saying that they will let inflation run ABOVE 2% for some time.

What does this mean?

Central banks controls inflation with monetary policy, they tighten monetary policy to reduce inflation and ease it to stimulate inflation, so the average inflation targeting means that they will accept inflation to run above target for a while before hiking interest rates (tightening monetary policy)

This question is related to the average inflation targeting, with that they will let inflation run “HOT” which of course means they will let inflation rise above their targets.

This above is a textbook question…

There is one asset par excellence that is known as the “hedge against inflation”, that of course is GOLD, so if inflation is expected to run hot GOLD & SILVER are the asset to own.

And to be precise, there are many other assets that do well in an inflationary period but definitely not the Dollar.

I hope this above doesn’t need explanations…

Supply and demand controls Oil prices, but i wonder how many answered it thinking about the supply and demand zones on the charts…

Here we are NOT talking about the supply and demand taught on Youtube or in your favorite guru overpriced technical analysis course, here we are talking about the real supply and demand, meaning exports, imports, airlines demand, countries demand, countries production and so on…

What people call supply and demand on the chart are simple zones of buying and selling interest, useful sometimes yes, but not what supply and demand is.

And here indeed we go deeper on what happens when demand for an asset changes and unsurprisingly of course, if demand is decreasing and supply doesn’t decrease along with the demand then prices fall.

And let me show you a real and very recent example:

Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di BESOMEBODYFX.com (1)

So we talked about the demand but what happens if the supply is changed, well if you reduce the supply of an asset and the demand is unchanged then there is less available in the market then price increases.

This is truly the basics of supply and demand and indeed fortunately most of you are getting it right, good job 😉

Here is my favorite one, and i’m very happy to see that many of you get these concepts pretty well.

So what happens if supply is cut but demand has slowed down more than the supply cut?

Well the cut is not enough to compensate to the slowdown in demand, so the market begins to be flooded with OVERSUPPLY and prices need to decrease to be “attractive”

We saw this in March, when OPEC was trying to find an agreement to cut supply and after long negotiations, they agreed to cut 10 Million barrels per day, but this was right before the global pandemic and during the Chinese lockdown where flights were already stopping and travels were slowing down, demand was so low that the OPEC cut was not enough to compensate with the oversupply, storages began to fill with unsold OIL barrels and that inevitably led OIL to levels unseen before:

Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di Copia di BESOMEBODYFX.com (2)

This above is the true example of why CONTEXT is sooo important in trading.

A 10 Million barrel per day cut in a world where demand has slowed by more than 29 Million barrel per day…

Some simple math of course brings us to a staggering oversupply of 19 Million barrel per day that didn’t know where to go and where to be stored.

A bit of confusion here guys…

This is something that we have been closely tracking in the Private Network for the past 5 months.

The central bank looking to go negative rates right now is the RBNZ.

But hey, this doesn’t mean that you can go outhere and short the NZD everywhere, remember the word CONTEXT, the right pair to buy here begins with an A and ends with a D

Oh and by the way, the ECB has negative rates since June 2014… Where did those 14 votes come from?

So what happens when one central bank is more dovish then another?

We here we are looking at a monetary policy divergence, where central bank X is dovish while central bank Y is neutral, this inevitably leads to the depreciation of central bank X currency against central bank Y currency, so the correct answer is indeed “look to buy”.

This is exactly what’s happening with the pair that begins with A and ends with D 😉

This is an interesting one, people are a little confused on what “currency intervention” means.

And we have been talking recently about it with the ECB meeting where the market was scared about a possible ECB intervention…

But then, what “intervention” means?

When a central bank intervenes in the market it’s to devaluate their currency, a strong domestic currency is not in the interest of central banks so when they intervene is to stop their currency from appreciating too much as that would put pressure on exports and inflation.

And that is it…

It definitely was the easiest quiz we have ever prepared and you can see it from the % of correct answers.

I hope you enjoyed it and found this educational, If you want to delve deeper in our trading style, check the BeSomebodyFX Private Network, you will have professional macro traders telling you exactly what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, so that you are increasing the probability of being successful and so that you can learn along the way.

Have a good Sunday and a good week.

And enjoy the race for all the F1 fans out there like me, Mugello what a great track.

August 1, 2020January 2, 2021

A little tip to drastically improve your trading

BESOMEBODYFX

JUST ONE RULE...

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

ONE SIMPLE TIP TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING NOW...

SOUNDS TOO GOOD?

It is too good, in some cases, but let me get straight to the point…

I’m in a good mood this weekend (F1 race weekend) so you know when i’m in a good mood i like to share stuff for you guys…

The whole point of this article is retail emotions…

The point here is that the crowd is impulsive and trades emotionally…

They get irritated easily so when a trade is in drawdown they take it personally, and sometimes their irritation will even make them switch position for no reason…

Don’t lie, you are guilty of that aren’t you?

And knowing this can give us an advantage in our trading.

Really?

Yes, and let me explain…

So for instance, the average Joe is seeing price breaking out of major resistance, he is telling himself “I can’t miss this buy, this is going to flyyyy” he buys at market price right at the break of the resistance, and you guessed it, right when he buys price starts to squeeze him out of the trade, it keeps squeezing and squeezing and Joe is telling himself “ah this was a false break now it’s time to sell let me reverse my position“…

You guessed it, when he reverses his position the market continues in the originally intended position, so Joe (sorry Joe) turned what was a good idea, so the long position, into two losers against what could have been 1 winner…

Let’s see exactly what i mean…

As you can see in the image above we have an uptrend where if we look at the retail sentiment I’m sure we see retails selling because they are always trying to pick the top in a trending market, so let’s suppose for the sake of the example that retails are selling this market.

We get a small bearish move that attracts further bears to step in and set their stop losses above the high.

Here comes the fun part because as you can see in the image above price comes close to their stop loss but it doesn’t hit it.

Why?

Because it wants to build more liquidity above, it wants to induce more sellers that will now jump in thinking of this as a double top or strong proven resistance.

So in the image above price finally hits the liquidity level, now we know there are either breakout buyers waiting to buy that break or the same retails that were short now frustrated and emotionally irritated reverse their position and buy the breakout giving themselves all the excuses in the world “this is going to fly now” “there is huge momentum to the upside” and so on…

The best part…

So now the market here is causing real pain (which is what it likes to do) because it’s now squeezing the late breakout buyers and inducing all kinds of self destructive thoughts for who was short and got stopped earlier “why i didn’t have my stop loss a few pips higher?” “why are they targeting my stop losses?” “should i add more when my stop loss gets hit?“, while the late breakout buyers are gradually all closing their positions in pain and probably reversing trade thinking it was a false break while all the previous seller and now getting back in (likely increasing position size as well… Human nature…) thinking the real bearish move is now about to happen after that “stop hunt“

The image above is self explanatory, this is by far one of the most useful psychological pattern in the markets that helps you first in not getting trapped, second in recognizing that this is indeed happening and to not fall trap and finally in exploiting this to your favour so that you can get the best entry after a breakout instead of FOMOing in the market.

And sure there will be the times the market breaks the resistance and just flies away with big momentum but if you want to have a healthy and long trading career then chasing that momentum won’t give you that, professional traders let the market come to them, they never chase it.

Quick and useful tip that can help your trading career…

We are writing a full “research paper” on all this stuff where various patterns similar to this will be listed with details, explanations, studies and so on, we are just a few pages in so it’s going to take some time to organize everything…

Of course it’s going to be available only to our Private Network members 😉

The example above is the representation of the perfect pattern but the real market is different, you will get perfect setups here and there but most of the time you will get various degrees of the same thing with slight variations, which is why it’s important to metabolize the core concept of liquidity and retail emotions in the market and not the pattern itself, the pattern is simply a representation of what’s happening in the retail mind.

So for the time being make sure you study the pattern shared above and next time you want to buy or sell a breakout right away think twice because there are tons of retails doing the same.

If you want to delve deeper in our trading style, check the BeSomebodyFX Private Network, you will have professional macro traders telling you exactly what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, so that you are increasing the probability of being successful and so that you can learn along the way.

We won’t accept any new member when the market opens and it’s limited to 5 new members, (3 already booked) so 2 seats left, the next enrolling will be only in September, or October, or next year?

Join Now

If you have any question hit the chat button on the bottom right or send me a message on Telegram and i get your questions answered quickly.

July 24, 2020July 24, 2020

You may learn a thing or two from this

BESOMEBODYFX

I HAVE TO WRITE THIS...

Trades

BESOMEBODYFX

exposed?

WHAT A FUNNY EXPERIENCE…

I don’t even know why I’m writing this but I need to vent and share what happened just because I like writing stuff down.

So, where do I start?

Right, it all happens with me running a few ads on Telegram for the BeSomebodyFX public group, so pretty much here and there I pay other channels to send a promotional message to their followers.

Why I do this?

Simply because I don’t want to do the “link exchange” which is basically when Channel A shares Channel B link and Channel B shares Channel A link.

Because I care about making every message I send on the public group valuable so if I start sending other channels links it becomes spammy and the quality drops which I don’t want, to not mention the fact that I would be sharing links to channels that are in 90% of the times scams.

But anyway it all started here, me searching for a channel to run this promo message.

I will not mention the channel name and I will blur it in the screenshots because I don’t want you guys sending him hate, in the end he didn’t really do anything wrong (except defaming me) but the guy probably got scammed a few times on Telegram so he was over defensive because of that.

So I send this guy a message asking if he is ok in sending a promotional message on his channel, and I would have paid him for that post to remain there for 24h.

So the concept here is i pay him to promote me on his channel, makes sense?

All good, so we find a deal on the amount of money, I send the transaction and I go eat…

When I got back things escalated very quickly…

Ok so wait a second, what is even happening here?

So the guy saw that the transaction was still pending and thought I was trying to scam him.

First of all, scam of what? a few views on your channel?

I’m the one paying you to post a promotional message on your channel, how is that even supposed to be a scam?

I tried to understand what was happening and tried to explain him that it can take up to a few hours to complete the transaction (that’s how slow BTC is yes) but the guy didn’t want to hear anything, I was the king of scammers for him just because the transaction was yet to be confirmed, and he replied sending me a video on how BTC transaction could be faked with a specific software, yeah except that i was using the BLOCKCHAIN APP and it was clearly visible on the screenshot i sent him…

Anyway…

So i checked on my side if there was something wrong and there wasn’t anything, the payment was sent and it was waiting to be confirmed, this how BTC works… (you can check the transaction ID and everything it’s all public online on blockchain)

Meanwhile he did a very wise thing… Very wise… (i’m sarcastic)

Instead of giving me a chance and waiting a few hours for the transaction to complete he immediately started to defame me in his channels and a few of his friend’s channels…

Mh ok, you know what you are doing here right?

You probably are too young to know that if you defame a legit business you can get into serious troubles, but anyway I will take the necessary legal actions only if required, which I truly hope I’m not.

So getting back on topic, things were getting heated and I was just there waiting for the transaction to complete while this guy defamed me who knows where, so I ridicolously thought…

Wait maybe I really did something wrong with the transaction?

Maybe I clicked the wrong button or something? or maybe the blockchain app is bugged? i was going crazy, this guy was soooo convinced that was really making me think I was in the wrong.

So I said ok let me send you another transaction with another app (this time I upped the fee for the transaction to be faster) just to be sure, (you can check the transaction ID on blockchain, it’s all public and transparent)

I sent it, sent him the ID of the transaction, both where in the blockchain but nothing this guy didn’t want to hear a thing, both transactions were “fake” because he was scammed once from another guy and he just kept defaming me on his channel, I was left with nothing but patience, patience to wait for the transaction to complete, something that clearly he didn’t have.

And then he came up with a co admin thing?

I was losing my mind there, the guy was just throwing stuff at me without thinking, i asked him who’s the “co admin” just to be sure he didn’t say Sean Paris which is actually the only other admin in the BeSomebodyFX group, but he said i deleted him at the time i deleted him, so i probably busted him contacting members privately on the chat, happened many times already (and people ask me why i don’t share the link for the public chat anymore… This is why)

I have no control on who contacts who in the public chat (which is the reason i don’t share the link for that anymore), so people get contacted by promoters or scammers privately selling stuff or promoting their channels everyday, we DO NOT contact anybody privately unless you texts us FIRST!

This is a lesson for everybody, no real business contacts you randomly on telegram selling you something unless you contacted him first showing interest, so if you get a random message from somebody you don’t know claming to be whoever he wants to be, then you can be sure 99% that he is a scam, Does this open your eyes? if it does you have a problem because you should already know that, it’s so dumb obvious! I hope i’m not the only one thinking it.

And most of all, if a stranger contacted you privately for no reason selling you something on Telegram and you really send him money then you deserve the lesson, period.

If you have to buy something you must have trusted and verified reviews, any sort of track record that it’s not a random weekly pip count and shows at least a few years of trading, and/or at least a website to process payments with trusted partners like PayPal or Stripe and not BTC that can’t be refunded.

So anyway I went to sleep but yet I couldn’t sleep well, knowing that after years of hard work trying to build something real to help traders, a random guy that doesn’t understand how BTC transactions work puts me on the “hall of shame” for something that I didn’t do, trust me it’s a little frustrating and irritating.

So I woke up during the night (4AM) and I checked how the BTC transaction were going and UNSURPRISINGLY both transactions went through after the regular required confirmations by the blockchain…

Yes of course both transactions went through, but the other guy was sleeping like a baby while I couldn’t sleep on it, so I was left there once again waiting patiently, until finally…

He deleted all the false accusations knowing he did a mistake…

I want to specify that i have nothing against this guy in particular, i’m just writing this to vent out what happened because i couldn’t sleep all night knowing that for something i didn’t do, the BeSomebodyFX brand was getting defamed, it took years to build the trust of followers, honest feedback and reviews and seeing it all getting defamed for no reason was really disturbing.

To wrap it up…

I just needed to vent all the frustration for what happened and share the experience, as i said i have nothing against this guy specifically, and the guy probably has been scammed a few times already on Telegram and so he went overdefensive which is kinda understandable so he did an honest mistake, and he just wasn’t informed of how BTC transaction work and on top of that probably was in a bad mood.

Before coming to conclusion guys always do your own researches, it applies in everything, both trading and life, do you own researches before coming to conclusions the same way you should do when you read a trade analysis online, if you act impulsively most of the time you are going to get into troubles, patience is a virtue.

July 23, 2020January 3, 2024

Best forex telegram group 2024

best forex telegram channels

BEST FOREX TELEGRAM GROUP

Trades

Best forex telegram group

BEST FOREX TELEGRAM GROUP 2024

I’m sure you have come across hundreds of different types of signal providers, right? Well, you surely are now frustrated because of the lack of professionalism in this industry.

In this article, I will share the very best forex signal telegram group for 2024 and beyond where analysis and trade recommendations are shared.

But hey, it won’t be the average type.

No.

This will be completely different from what you are used to.

As a result in these Forex telegram channels you will see real macro-micro fundamentals with professional tools and analysis.

So if you are smart enough you will learn a lot from it…

It’s not going to be classic useless kind of Telegram channel.

No.

These are NOT the average signal providers.

These are instead run by real professional Forex traders.

So the choice will be yours to join them or remain in the losing 90% of retails following the average ones.

THIS IS THE BEST FOREX TELEGRAM GROUP FOR 2022 AND BEYOND:

So, the best forex telegram group is first of all…

BeSomebodyFX

Link: https://t.me/BeSomebodyFX

In this Telegram channel you will find medium to long term (with a few short term opportunities here and there) trades.

At first it will definitely look confusing as the analysis are sometimes not easy to understand.

But that’s what a professional analysis looks like, it’s detailed and with various confirmations.

In other words, stick with this channel and you will find yourself profitable, instead of running around hundreds of Telegram groups run by kids with no trading experience.

The second best Forex signals Telegram for 2024 and beyond is:

RideThePig

Link: tme/ridethepig

Firstly it’s important to say that this one, like the first channel, it’s NOT run by a kid with no experience, but it’s run by a professional trader that knows what he is doing.

However here the analysis will not be easy either.

You have to put some work or you won’t get anywhere.

Above here i just shared you two of the best forex telegram groups.

And most importantly be careful because telegram is a deep hole in terms of forex telegram channels.

Because there are thousands of them and 95% are run by kids with no experience.

Above all, you have to be picky and select ONLY the best ones.

Really.

Cut out all the noise and focus on the best.

And yes even if it means less trades and less analysis, focus on quality over quantity.

To clarify, make sure you avoid channels where the owner flexes about his profits or just sells you his VIP group.

This is what you must avoid in a Forex signals Telegram group:

Example of unprofessional Forex Telegram group

As you can see It doesn’t provide any value to your trading, and it’s just random.

That is to say that you must have in your portfolio the best groups.

And the two mentioned are your choice.

So avoid the rest, focus on their analysis and you will learn a lot.

You will find your accuracy rate improves when you focus on high quality traders rather than random groups that send too many trades.

What you need to know about Forex Telegram groups:

Now let’s say that you follow a group and that you start seeing that it’s not transparent.

What do you do?

Well, it goes without saying that you should be more carefully with its trades.

You see, the first and most important factor is transparency.

It’s not a surprise to know that even highly professional traders have some losing trades here and there.

Thus the traders that are transparent about their losing trades are the ones that you should start listening to.

What matters is consistency, not accuracy.

Consistency is what brings the results over time.

You may find a group that is very accurate with the trade signals, but he has a tiny take profit and a large stop loss.

You don’t need to be schooled on why that’s the wrong approach, right?

Remember, consistency is what matters with Forex signals.

BEST FOREX SIGNAL TELEGRAM GROUP:

BeSomebodyFX, and RideThePig are two of the finest forex online signal telegram channel that you can find.

Stick with them and you will learn how professionals work.

Other groups usually have a lot of “fluff” going on in between.

The average ones out there are NOT straightforward.

So, we take all of that into consideration, and thus we focus on quality over quantity in choosing the best ones to follow.

So, what is the best Forex Telegram group?

BeSomebodyFX sits on top of the list. It has great macro fundamental traders, great trade ideas and insights and on top of all that, it has great trades to follow.

There are other Forex Telegram groups that are worth mentioning as well, which we have already discussed in another article.

But BeSomebodyFX is the best for consistency and professionalism.

The best Forex signal Telegram group is also the most consistent:

Like mentioned above, consistency in trading is the most important thing. You can have some wins here and there, but if you can’t keep that up consistently you don’t go anywhere.

That is why when you follow a traders you don’t have to just see his past couple of trades and see how those went.

No, a couple of trades are NOT enough to judge professionalism and consistency appropriately.

First, if the trader has a myfxbook that’s even better, that way you can see exactly the historical performance.

But if one doesn’t have it then you must study and analyze his trades first to judge if he is consistent or not before you follow the signals.

That’s all about Telegram Forex Online Signal Groups?

Yes, above I shared you the two most trusted ones where you can learn the most.

In conclusion Telegram is a great application where you can find several forex channels that will provide you with good content and signals.

But here in this article, I have shared with you two of the best ones.

Make of that the best, you can improve your trading by following professional traders.

You need to cut out all the noise, cut all the noisy forex telegram channels that don’t provide any value and focus on what does.

By the way, did you check our Private Network?