A little tip to drastically improve your trading

BESOMEBODYFX

JUST ONE RULE...

Trades
BESOMEBODYFX
ONE SIMPLE TIP TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING NOW...
SOUNDS TOO GOOD?

It is too good, in some cases, but let me get straight to the point…

I’m in a good mood this weekend (F1 race weekend) so you know when i’m in a good mood i like to share stuff for you guys…

The whole point of this article is retail emotions…

The point here is that the crowd is impulsive and trades emotionally…

They get irritated easily so when a trade is in drawdown they take it personally, and sometimes their irritation will even make them switch position for no reason…

Don’t lie, you are guilty of that aren’t you?

And knowing this can give us an advantage in our trading.

Really?

Yes, and let me explain…

So for instance, the average Joe is seeing price breaking out of major resistance, he is telling himself “I can’t miss this buy, this is going to flyyyy” he buys at market price right at the break of the resistance, and you guessed it, right when he buys price starts to squeeze him out of the trade, it keeps squeezing and squeezing and Joe is telling himself “ah this was a false break now it’s time to sell let me reverse my position“…

You guessed it, when he reverses his position the market continues in the originally intended position, so Joe (sorry Joe) turned what was a good idea, so the long position, into two losers against what could have been 1 winner…

Let’s see exactly what i mean…

As you can see in the image above we have an uptrend where if we look at the retail sentiment I’m sure we see retails selling because they are always trying to pick the top in a trending market, so let’s suppose for the sake of the example that retails are selling this market.

We get a small bearish move that attracts further bears to step in and set their stop losses above the high.

Here comes the fun part because as you can see in the image above price comes close to their stop loss but it doesn’t hit it.

Why?

Because it wants to build more liquidity above, it wants to induce more sellers that will now jump in thinking of this as a double top or strong proven resistance.

So in the image above price finally hits the liquidity level, now we know there are either breakout buyers waiting to buy that break or the same retails that were short now frustrated and emotionally irritated reverse their position and buy the breakout giving themselves all the excuses in the world “this is going to fly now” “there is huge momentum to the upside” and so on…

The best part…

So now the market here is causing real pain (which is what it likes to do) because it’s now squeezing the late breakout buyers and inducing all kinds of self destructive thoughts for who was short and got stopped earlier “why i didn’t have my stop loss a few pips higher?” “why are they targeting my stop losses?” “should i add more when my stop loss gets hit?“, while the late breakout buyers are gradually all closing their positions in pain and probably reversing trade thinking it was a false break while all the previous seller and now getting back in (likely increasing position size as well… Human nature…) thinking the real bearish move is now about to happen after that “stop hunt

The image above is self explanatory, this is by far one of the most useful psychological pattern in the markets that helps you first in not getting trapped, second in recognizing that this is indeed happening and to not fall trap and finally in exploiting this to your favour so that you can get the best entry after a breakout instead of FOMOing in the market.

And sure there will be the times the market breaks the resistance and just flies away with big momentum but if you want to have a healthy and long trading career then chasing that momentum won’t give you that, professional traders let the market come to them, they never chase it.

Quick and useful tip that can help your trading career…

We are writing a full “research paper” on all this stuff where various patterns similar to this will be listed with details, explanations, studies and so on, we are just a few pages in so it’s going to take some time to organize everything…

Of course it’s going to be available only to our Private Network members 😉

The example above is the representation of the perfect pattern but the real market is different, you will get perfect setups here and there but most of the time you will get various degrees of the same thing with slight variations, which is why it’s important to metabolize the core concept of liquidity and retail emotions in the market and not the pattern itself, the pattern is simply a representation of what’s happening in the retail mind.

So for the time being make sure you study the pattern shared above and next time you want to buy or sell a breakout right away think twice because there are tons of retails doing the same.

If you want to delve deeper in our trading style, check the BeSomebodyFX Private Network, you will have professional macro traders telling you  exactly what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, so that you are increasing the probability of being successful and so that you can learn along the way.

We won’t accept any new member when the market opens and it’s limited to 5 new members, (3 already booked) so 2 seats left, the next enrolling will be only in September, or October, or next year? Trollface | Know Your Meme

Join Now

If you have any question hit the chat button on the bottom right or send me a message on Telegram and i get your questions answered quickly.

History and how it can help us in our trading

BESOMEBODYFX

HISTORY AND TRADING?

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besomebodyfx
HOW HISTORY CAN HELP US IN OUR TRADING?
Some of you may find this post very boring and some of you will find it extremely valuable and informative, so i’m writing this for all the market nerds like myself that love this stuff, but if you aren’t one then give it a read anyway.

What I want to talk about is how history can help us in our trading and how we can study it to help us approach future similar events in the right way.

It may be a little boring at first but hold on until the end because there are a few gold nuggets for your trading and there is a great opportunity that you can capitalize in the near future 😉

 

So let’s get started…

First the “boring” part for most of the traders that are reading this.

In the US the biggest panic narrative was of course in 1929 and i’m sure you all studied it in school right?… Right?

Well, it was the 1929 market crash that gave us the notion of indeed the word “crash”, before that the phrase “boom and crash” was used only in relation to something else like the sound of thunder or whatever was appropriate in the historical period.

But the ‘29 crash completely changed the human perspective and the main significance of the word “crash” which from then on it was related mainly to the stock market.

And of course we all know this came back various times since then, we have 2001 and 2008 as the most recent examples, not to mention 2020 crash.

 

Yes but then what’s the point?

These narratives that happened years and even almost a century ago can be useful to read current events…

If we want to have a better understanding of what’s happening in a specific period of time we are living, then we always need to recognize that we are often experiencing a slight mutation of the most similar historical event.

 

Did I lose you already? 

Well speaking about crashes, what i’m trying to say is that the human mind can be very pessimistic and sadic in these periods because most people want to see the world burn, they want to see the end of “world order”, the end of the markets as well all know it and so on…

I find very interesting how aggressively most people are extrapolating the current situation (COVID19) out into the forever future.

It’s similar to how people were talking about the market in 2008 and in 2001.

The consensus was: “The market is toast.” “Nobody will want to invest in stocks again”.

Since then, well we all know how well the US stock market performed.

Pessimistic biases tend to be magnified aggressively after a salient, scary thing like COVID19 happens.

We tend to project the current circumstances out forever when in real life the world often reverts or goes off in a completely different direction more quickly than one could possibly imagine when still living in the middle of the scary thing.

The markets are forward looking by at least 6 months so they can and they will “price in” the recovery much earlier than what everybody would expect.

And we are not hypothesizing here, the world has encountered many many many many apocalyptic events that the majority thought would have signed the end of capital markets, but nope so far the world hasn’t ended, it always gets back up, over and over again, probably we have a lot to learn from it.

And history teaches us this, humans tend to exaggerate the conclusions and while the majority is pessimistic and believes the world will end after a certain event a few smart investors load up positions anticipating the world getting back on its feet and the market recovering like it always did for the past century at least.

We all want to be the next Michael Burry (who?) and bet on the market collapse but for every 1 investor that capitalized on a crash there are 10 that created wealth from buying cheap, who has the advantage here?

I’m not saying you to buy every dip but i’m saying you that its wise to do what worked in the past and so far buying the dips has worked very well, you just need to build a tool that helps you doing that and helps you time well the entries and we personally did it very well, you can check it here.

 

But how do you do that?

Well I can’t give you the all the sauce here but I can point you in the right direction, and a good start is studying leading indicators (not the indicators you are thinking of… leading indicators are economic indicators that lead the lagging indicators) like PMIs (especially the ISM in the US), Building Permits and Consumer Confidence (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in the US)

I can guarantee you that it’s not hard and if you squeeze your brain a little you will find the answer on how to buy the dips after a crash in those three indicators.

 

And my favorite, Heavy Truck Sales:

The grey shaded parts are US recessions, do you see what i’m seeing?

Well i hope you do, here is a tweet we sent a while ago (pre COVID crash)

The stock market moves on GDP expectations for the next 6 to 12 months, so learn to predict GDP (lagging indicator) by studying leading indicators and you will have a great advantage in long term investing, i have said enough 😉

 

 

What else?

This is the most straight forward and simple example i can do relative to the US stock market performance but by studying historical events and the impact they had on the economy (keeping a close eye on leading indicators) we can be better prepared for what the future might throw at us in every sector, stocks, currencies, commodities and so on.

And it doesn’t stop here because this concept doesn’t apply only to historical events, we are talking about chart patterns as well…

Always ask yourself if “A” is happening what usually follows? as in what happened after “A” in the past year or decade depending on your timeframe?

You may find out that you have a solid pattern to trade on, and sometimes it may even go against everything you have been taught by the instagram and youtube furus out there. 

 

 

Here is a recent example that we are looking to trade on.

This is COST, and you will find in this chart that the first time the RSI goes overbought after being oversold price tends to rally in the following months, and yes this is the bonus for all the curious readers that made it until here you can buy COST hereand hold for a few months until satisfied with the profit.

Is this just random?

Of course it is, everything is random but there can be order in randomness as well, what we rely on, in this case, is in the concept of “When A happened then B followed X% of the times in the past X years”, there isn’t, of course, a guarantee that B will happen but what we have a few odds in our favor if it worked in the past.

So as you can see this concept of studying history and how a certain event impacted price on the chart can be applied in both real historical events and technical formations on the charts as well.

On the technical side sometimes you may just be trading the right pattern but in the wrong asset, let’s take a classic bearish/bullish flag pattern for instance.

It’s a great pattern that can be extremely profitable if put into context, so sometimes you just need to do some chart work and see how many times in this specific currency pair, commodity or stock a bull flag worked well? you may scroll on your chart and see that 8 flags out of 10 didn’t work in that asset, so would you still trade it?

Of course not, history is proving you that in that specific asset that specific pattern doesn’t work or at least recently didn’t work well.

At the same time you may find that price after breaking the flag usually spikes on the opposite side to stop hunt all the breakout traders before following in the intended direction, so what would you do in this case? would you still buy right at the breakout or would you buy the stop hunt to get the best entry price possible?

And on the opposite is true as well, you may find out in a specific asset that 8 times out of 10 when price broke a flag it never came back to retest the broken flag, so when the next flag breaks will you look to trade the retest or will you enter a position right at the break?

Exactly a few minutes ago while i was writing this article a friend of mine was looking to buy a specific stock at the NY open, the stock gapped up and he asked me “what do i do now?” “do i buy here or wait for the gap to fill?”

The answer is easy, there is no fixed rule, the rule will change for every asset, just look at some chart history and see at least in the past 10 gaps how many times price filled it and how many times it just run away?

It filled the gap 7 times out of 10? good then wait for the gap to fill before buying…

Price usually never fills the gap and just runs away leaving it open? good then don’t wait for the gap to fill…

 

 

Tons of examples can be made here, it’s all about getting used in looking at how the chart reacted when event “X” happened which could be the FED going 0% interest rates, a global pandemic, RSI going overbought, a technical breakout of a flag or resistance and so on… You may find very interesting results.

I hope this little article was informative, have a great day and stay safe out there.

 

 

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

SILVER opportunity coming up…

BESOMEBODYFX

SILVER OPPORTUNITY

Trades
besomebodyfx
Possible long on silver coming up this week
It’s race day!

Today the F1 resumes finally after a long long long break, so every Formula 1 fan is excited now and i feel generous today so i decided to share with you an email that we sent an hour ago to all the Private Network members…

It’s not just a random boring email don’t worry…

It illustrates a great opportunity that is coming up this week in SILVER.

Enjoy:

By the way the historical edge that we mention for Natural Gas  at the beginning of the email was a short from June 16 and still ongoing, you can check how that worked in the chart by yourself 😉

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, so don’t forget to always use money management when opening a position, there is no certainty and there is no easy money, keep it professional and you will be rewared.

We personally use a research driven approach for our trades and we use technical analysis only to time our entries, if you want to learn more on how we work and add an edge to your trading with our daily insights while at the same time following our trades with exact entries and exits, then check out the Private Network.

Enjoy the race if you are an F1 fan too, and if you are not then enjoy your Sunday, see you during the week in the public Telegram channel or even better in the Private one if you decide to join us before the open (the link to join will close right before the market open).

https://besomebodyfx.com/besomebodyfx-network/

Second trading quiz results

BESOMEBODYFX

TRADING QUIZ RESULTS

Trades
besomebodyfx
quiz results and explanations
You are here to know the correct answers to the quiz right?

Cool, let’s start…

The first question was about market pricing

So in a hypothetical event (RBA rate decision) the market heads into the rate decision expecting a 100bps rate cut which is of course a negative for the Australian Dollar (in simple, cuts are negative while hikes are positive for a currency).

BUT the market is more complex and the RBA did cut rates BUT only a small 25bps cut, which would have been a negative if only the market wasn’t pricing a 100bps cut, so in simple the RBA underdelivered in this case hence it was a HUGE relief for the Australian Dollar which would have rallied on the back of it, so the correct answer here is “it pumps.

The concept of what’s priced in and what not is extremely important in trading, why?

Take for instance the recent huge unemployment numbers that we are seeing, you may look at the data release and say “woahhh 16% UnemPloyMent rate in the US that’s HUUUGEE the DOllAr is going to dUmP…”

But instead the Dollar it’s not moving, the data is release, it’s a crazy number but the market moves just a few pips, why? because it was EXPECTED and PRICED IN, so everybody already knew that the unemployment rate was going to be awful hence the marked already did its thing weeks in advance.

It’s always important to know what’s priced into the market and what not, makes sense?

This is pretty basic, anything that creates tensions in the middle east hence putting OIL production at risk is POSITIVE for OIL, and at the same time anything that creates tensions in the world is GOLD POSITIVE so the correct answer here is “they both pump“.

Should i even comment on this? ☝️

Next…

And this one made the most kills, 10Y T Notes and GOLD are extremely correlated, if one pumps the other does too and if for some reason one is moving while the other isn’t then it’s time to squeeze your brain and find the reason to understand which one is lagging who, because you may have a great trading opportunity.

So the correct answer here is “They are positively correlated” so if T Notes pump then GOLD pumps too.

And for the smart lads that thought two different assets don’t affect each other, it’s time to learn that currencies and some commodities are all interconnected with the bond market.

I wonder if the traders that answered down ever read one of our public analysis?

It’s literally almost a cornerstone concept of our analysis…

A contrarian approach to retails…

If retails are short the path of least resistance is UP…

Why? because most of the time you are trying to pick tops and bottoms in trending markets genious!

This could be a heated subject but the consensus is clear, if Biden wins the elections the stock market should react negatively at least in the short term…

The thinking behind this is that if a Democrat wins the White House, the party is virtually certain to win both houses of Congress due to next year’s Senate math, and, in turn, that could likely result in the unwinding of fiscal and regulatory policies that contributed to the current economic expansion. 

And yes hate it or love him Trump is actually GOOD for the stock market:

This of course before the COVID19 hit the world economy, but that’s what we call an exogenous (something that has an external cause or origin) black swan event,  and at this rate i wouldn’t even be surprised if we get back to ATH before November’s elections…

Next…

The correct answer here is “Easing means cutting interest rates and tightening means hiking interest rates

This one looks more like confusion between the term hawkish and dovish…

Most of you agree that at least they should CUT rates which is correct, in this hypothetical scenario the RBA sets an acceptable level for the Unemployment rate and if it goes above that they are prepared to act (prepared to act means prepared to cut rates in this case), unemployment goes wayyy above their level and the next logical move (as specified by the RBA itself with the “prepared to act”) is to indeed CUT rates or at least send a DOVISH message.

Why Dovish message and not hawkish one?

Don’t forget an hawkish central bank is a bank looking to hike rates and optimist about future outlook, while a dovish central bank is a bank looking to cut rates and with a negative outlook on their economy, so correct answer is “CUT or at least send DOVISH message”.

MARIO DRAGHI! mario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-previewmario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-preview

MARIO DRAGHI! mario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-previewmario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-preview

I’m Draghi’s fan did you notice?

For your interest, this is Jared Leto:

Yeah definitely not a central banker…

Now last question:

This question looks taken straight out of a school test…

And i will let Google answer this one:

Yes the correct answer is a “weak currency“, and the RBNZ is a great example of this, it’s in their mandate to keep the NZD relatively weak to help their exports hence support the economy.

 

And that’s it…

We had only 2 traders that scored 100 on the quiz, the first one won a free month in the Private Network so congratz, while the second can whistle for it ‘cos he got too late… 

The Most Important Skill In Trading

BESOMEBODYFX

BEST TRADING SKILL?

Trades
besomebodyfx
WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TRADING SKILL?
It’s race day!

Traders develop daily rather than in a day, a good trader understands that it takes time to be a good trader, that it’s not something you do or become quickly, it’s not something that you become after you read one book or you buy one course…

Often people come to me after 1 week of being in the private network and they say “I’m so excited, I see everything clearly now, I understand everything”

Nono… Today you are BEGINNING to understand but you are not going to understand the markets just in a week or after you took 2 profitable trades, it takes time, it’s a process…

So as a beginner trader you need to understand that today you are only beginning the journey, what you also need to understand is that it’s a process so it will take time to develop great trader skills

And so the most important skill of a successful trader is discipline:

Read carefully, discipline is much more important than vision, when people think of trading they think of vision, they say “here is what I want” and they see their accounts and plan the amount of money they want to make and the timeframe to reach that and so on…

That’s vision.

Now, vision can be important don’t get me wrong, vision is the fuel for your will but discipline is much more important than vision because discipline is behavior, discipline isn’t what we see (that’s vision), discipline is what we do… 

And what we do and how we do it determines where we are going and what our account is going to accomplish.

Now, discipline determines how well you succeed in trading…

let me explain…

If you put your level of discipline on a scale from 1 to 10 so let’s say for instance you are a 5, you are an average level of discipline, well now you need to put your account performance in that same scale from 1 to 10 BUT here is what happens…

There is a law in trading that you can’t perform better than how much you are disciplined, so in simple if you are a level 5 discipline you can’t perform in your trading at a level 10 or at a level 8, your level of discipline will always cap your performance, this is true for everybody in the long term.

Now, of course you can be undisciplined get lucky and turn 100$ into 1000$ in a week but I can tell you that it’s not sustainable and sooner than later you will search on google:

This rule applies to everybody, over the long term you can’t perform better than your discipline level.

Now here comes the magic, people come to me and ask me:

“How can I grow my trading performance?”

Well, very simple grow your discipline skills, so what that means is that the better we learn to be disciplined the more potential we have of performing better on our trading accounts

The great news that I want to share with you is that you can learn to be more disciplined but I can’t help you with that…

Being in a professional community of traders like the Private Network definitely can help you but you have to work on that by yourself in your daily life too, if you are not disciplined in your life that will reflect in your trading performance.

So if my discipline level on a scale from 1 to 10 is a 5 that means my trading performance is maximum a 5 and it cannot go any higher.

UNLESS…

Unless I increase my discipline level, and you can do that, in other words, is possible to take your discipline score to a 5 to a 7 or to a 9, you now have room for your trading performance to grow to an 8 or a 9, once you understand and accept that then things begin to be amazing, you start to see how your daily life behavior and your habits impact your trading, and trust me you don’t have power in controlling the markets but you have all the power in the world to control and change your daily habits.

And when you have a whole Network of professional macro fund managers telling you what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, then you are increasing the probability of being successful.

That is what the BeSomebodyFX Private Network offers you, with an emphasis on first protecting your wealth, and positioning your capital to profit.

What does the Network get you?

  • Access to insights & guidance from top tier traders
  • Access to our live trades, from long term to short term opportunities
  • Access to all our researches, info and insights
  • Access to a professional helpful community via private chat

…all for less than a daily cup of coffee

Now i can go ahead all day listing you the features and benefits of the Private Network but i will let our reviews speak for us…

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

I hope to welcome you in our Private Network soon, so you can start networking with our global member base.

Yes we just opened a few extra seats to join the Network…

This extra enrolment will close in 24h…

Should you have any questions about joining in the meantime, simply send us a message on Telegram @JayRally and i will get your questions answered.

Trading Quiz Results

BESOMEBODYFX

TRADING QUIZ RESULTS

Trades
besomebodyfx
quiz results and explanations
OK, INTERESTING, VERY INTERESTING RESULTS, IF YOU ARE HERE YOU WANT TO KNOW THE CORRECT ANSWERS RIGHT?

Well that would be $99.99

Joking 🤪

Don’t want to dwell too much today so let’s get straight to the results.

It’s relieving to know that at least 83% of you know who Mario Draghi is, i don’t even want to comment on the others, literally, you could have just googled it… 

Second question asked you to choose which one of the options was a commodity currency.

67% of you got it right.

What even is a commodity currency and why the AUD is labeled as such?

Google is the answer to all your problems…

So in simple why the AUD is considered a commodity currency?

Australia is a major exporter of GOLD and its economy is highly dependant on that, another example of this is the CAD which is another commodity currency because Canadian economy is highly dependant on OIL exports hence OIL prices, lower OIL prices = CAD negative, higher OIL prices = CAD positive

Next question, which one is an antipodean currency?

Antipowhat?

Antipodean is just a technical label for AUD and NZD

34% of you learned a new word today, good job, don’t forget it because it’s a widely used term in the professional trading world.

Let get to the next question:

75% of you got it right thanks, this is literally the cornerstone and extremely basic concept of fundamentals trading, knowing what an hawkish central bank is and what a dovish central bank is.

You can stick to selling oversold and buying overbought zones in your stochastic if you don’t want to study the very basics of fundamentals…

A central bank is termed hawkish when it raises interest rates and dovish when it cuts interest rates.

Next…

Here we are talking about short term reaction, and the correct answer is of course “they dump” and all the traders with a brain that traded in 2019 should know very well this, if Trump announces tariffs against China then the risk sentiment of the market gets hit hard and investors start to take out money from stocks to put in into safe havens, and don’t forget about algos, the short term reaction it’s all algo trading, they read the headline in milliseconds and start to trade based on the headline sentiment.

So when you see a dump or pump based on a news headline then that move is 99% algo scalping the headline trying to get ahead of everybody else for a few pips of profit, literally it’s algos trying to get ahead of another algo to buy ahead of it to then sell it back to the algo coming late to the party… 

Yes high frequency trading it’s that fucked up…

Next…

And this confused more traders tho, again, the traders that went through 2019 trade war should well know the logic behind this, Australia is a major trade partner with China, if China is hit with tariffs and their economy slows down then Australia is inevitably hit as well which would force the RBA to step in and lower interest rates hence making the AUD less attractive hence less demand hence AUD weaker…

“Arghhh  this trading thing is much more complex than I thought…”

Safe havens… You MUST know what they are, it’s absolutely crucial for your trading success, you must understand it and understand the different shades of market sentiment (risk off/on)

But let’s get to the correct answer here,  the JPY and the CHF are he safe havens in this list.

And now the cherry on the cake…

Finally we come to the tricky evil question, what even is a leading indicator you may ask, something that everybody admires as a leader?

No…

A leading indicator is an economic indicator that anticipates the lagging indicators, so an indicator from which you can anticipate future growth of a country.

And here all the traders that answered Stochastic are facepalming themselves… 

Surely your stochastic doesn’t lead future economic growth right?

It actually doesn’t even lead price on your chart, does it?

So the 23% that answered Stochastic, please reflect on your priorities in your trading analysis… 

The correct answer here are PMIs.

PMIs lead changes in all the lagging indicators such GDP, Employment, CPI and many others, understanding what leading indicators are and what lagging indicators are is extremely important.

The categories are 3:

  • Leading (anticipate the future)
  • Coincident (just show what’s happening at the moment)
  • Lagging (show what already happened)

It’s a broad subject to explain so if you are interested in learning more about it then google is your friend again 😉

And here we get back to monetary policy basic concepts, what happens to a currency when a central bank shifts from once stance to the other?

And the correct answer is of course “it appreciates against other currencies

If a central bank shifts from a dovish to an hawkish stance then it means they are now looking to hike interest rates in the future and that’s positive for the domestic currency, the opposite would be true as well of course.

And for the GOLD lovers yes the correct answer is “To the moon!

why?

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium provide a safe haven against inflation.  When a central bank pumps money into the system, by definition, they are attempting to induce more inflation, precious metals investors view these actions as inflationary and move quickly their savings or investments into these safe haven assets scared about the devaluing of their domestic currency.

So in simple with negative rates and QE a central bank inevitably devalues the domestic currency and increases inflation and would you keep your money into something that is devaluing?

No, hence attractiveness for GOLD increases.

 

 

And that’s all, hope you enjoyed taking the quiz and you learned something, and yes you haven’t even scraped the surface of fundamental analysis…

More quizzes to come in the future, this time harder ones, yes this one was easy…

What are month end flows and how to benefit from it?

BESOMEBODYFX

MONTH END FLOWS?

Trades
besomebodyfx
WHAT are month end flows and how to benefit from it?
Don’t worry we won’t into the complex technical details of the flows as it would get too complicated and basically useless for real trading…

What instead we want to teach you with this article is how to benefit from these month end flows, and read until the end to see a trading opportunity that you can capitalize on as soon as next week starts…

So let’s get into it

Don’t worry i said we will not get too complicated and indeed we won’t, the key takeaway from this definition that you need to understand is simple, at the end of the month there are portfolio managers and funds that need to rebalance their portfolio exposure before the London session ends hence why the biggest impact of this is seen at 4PM London time of the last day of the month which is called the London Fix.

So you may be asking yourself…

How the heck do i know what these portfolio manages have to hedge so that i can ride these month end flows?

Well you can’t…

Or better, you can’t without proper tools or the right contacts tipping you ahead of the move, hence why we have the Private Network so that we can send the members these type of tips thanks to out tools and contacts 😙

We knew exactly that month end flows for April would have been USD selling hence USD weakness so we tipped the members at the London open.

How did we know this?

First an extremely useful tool that we use to predict these month end flows is the Capital Flow Tool from the BeSomebodyFX Terminal

That tool gives us clear direction on where money are moving across assets, but we are not here to flex about our tools and services…

You should already know by now that being a Private Network member gives you the edge in the market 🤪

But let’s get to the point of this article before you leave thinking “i will never be profitable if i’m not a Private Network member

The month end flows are not only useful to ride when they happen but they are extremely profitable to FADE once the month ends…

Yes because think about it, there is no fundamental or real catalyst for that move and the market moves pricing in geopolitical factors, interest rates, macroeconomic, central banks policies etc, so what happens if the market rallies 200 pips for no reason right at the London Fix at the end of the month?

Easy, the market needs to reprice back to his original value, that 200 pip move has no reason to be there it was just caused by a technical rebalancing in the portfolio managers book, it wasn’t cause by a shift in fundamentals, hence it’s a GREAT fade.

And this is exactly what happened with the April month end flows too, we saw USD weakness on many pairs to then reverse completely the move on May 1st

Oh and same happened with JPY pairs, the Yen saw a massive spike of weakness right into the London fix to then reverse on May 1st

Now these type of flows DON’T happen every single month, you need to be good in recognizing when it’s real month end rebalancing or when it’s only a normal market movement, here is another example from EURUSD for January month end flows.

Do you see where the opportunity lies?

If you see a crazy move in the last day of the month which is not being driven by economic news or events and it’s extremely impulsive with little to no retracements that’s your trade right there, you can fade it once the next month begins…

And now here is a bonus 😉

As you can see EURUSD still has to retrace April month end flows.

Can this be an exception where the flows are not retraced?

Yes it can of course, but the edge to take the trade for us is there, if we are proven wrong this time no big deal we don’t take it personally and we move on to another idea.

So can you short EURUSD?

I’m not going to tell you if you can short it or not, the article is self explanatory but I can tell you that we in the Private Network are short with an extremely small position so manage your risk well if you want to give it a shot 😉

What Bruce Lee Can Teach Us About Trading?

Trades
besomebodyfx
WHAT CAN BRUCE LEE TEACH US ABOUT TRADING
You might think why the heck is this guy bringing Bruce Lee and trading together?

Well, it definitely doesn’t make any sense but this week a famous quote from‌‌ Bruce Lee came out of nowhere in a discussion in the Private Network chat and the quote was “be like water” it’s a famous quote and you definitely heard it aready from this interview:

So myself being a huge Bruce Lee fan i started asking what Bruce Lee can teach somebody about trading?

You surely know who Bruce Lee was and what he did, but probably most of you don’t know that Bruce was a philosopher as well and studied philosophy at the University of Washington.

So almost a decade ago i bought a book about Bruce Lee which is basically a compilation of all his thoughts and scripts, so this week i decided to pick it up again to extract a few good quotes that can be meaningful for traders…

Excuse myself for the cringiness of this article but i didn’t have much to do this morning so this is the fruit of the lockdown boredom…

Simplicity is the key to brilliance”

I’m sure i don’t have to explain this one, keep it simple, don’t overcomplicate things, create an actionable approach and master it but don’t forget that 90% of retail fail so think twice when you study what every other retail trader is studying…

The key is simplicity, yes, well simplicity doesn’t mean what you might think, like buy when the stochastic is oversold and sell when overbought, yes that’s simple, but it’s not simplicitysimplicity is, trade what simply moves the market, trust me your stochastic is not moving anything, what really moves the makets are factors outside your chart…

“Success means doing something sincerely and whole-heartedly, and you have to have the help of other people to achieve it”

This affirmation is true in trading because you need somebody to push you further and to support you in hard times, having a team in trading is in my view absolutely crucial for success, of course, it depends on individuals but having support where you can ask feedback, suggestions and you can confront yourself it’s a huge advantage in this industry.

“In order to control myself i must first accept myself by going with and not against my nature, everybody has to think for himself. A right way for a big man may not be a right way for a small man, a right way for someone who is slow may not be a right way for someone who is quick, each person must understand his weaknesses and his strengths”

In the trading field this means, learn about yourself, learn your motivation, learn what you actually want from the market and what you are willing to give, you want to stay in front of the chart 10 hours a day? or you want a more relaxed approach, looking at charts only during the weekend? Learn about what you want and from that you can adjust your trading based on your interests, if you are somebody that gets frustrated by losses, then focus on fewer trades and more accuracy, if you don’t like to stay in front of the charts then don’t even try daytrading because you will fail no matter what.

If you don’t like what you are doing, you are adding another enemy to what already is really hard in itself.

“If you spend too much time thinking about a thing you will never get it done”

When you have a plan, you have everything planned out, then don’t hesitate when it’s time to pull the trigger, if you think about it too much then you are done, you will overthink it and there you go, you missed your perfect entry, this is why i love pending orders, just place it according to your plan, and don’t look back.

“A choice method imprisons the mind, fixes the mind in a pattern. It’s the cultivation of resistance, and where there is resistance there is no understanding, any techquine, however worthy and desirable, becomes a disease when the mind is obsessed with it”

I love this one, don’t be obsessed with a specific method of trading, understand the WHOLE concept and then specialize in something BUT always understanding the bigger picture and without getting obsessed with your approach, a good trader is able to switch his style when needed, adapt yourself to what the market is telling you in that moment and don’t force your method on it.

“Mistakes are always forgivable, if one has the courage to admit them.”

Admit yourself when you have done a mistake, don’t try to hide it, the only way you can learn from it is to accept and study it, did you oversize in a trade for instance? study your emotions during your decision making and what happened that made you oversize in the trade.

‎The successful warrior is the average man, with laser-like focus.

Sometimes people come to me asking if you need to be a genius to be profitable in the markets, and yes definitely you need to be smart since you are competing with some of the sharpest minds in the world but what makes the difference is not IQ, is your ability to control yourself, your discipline and focus…

“The man created the method, not the other way around, so don’t try at all costs to adapt to somebody else schemes, models that undoubtedly will work for him, but not necessarily for you”

Straight forward, find your way, don’t try to copycat anybody, if you do that you will not succeed…

Now if you have been able to get through this cringy article I salute you because you find this interesting as I do, psychology as we all know plays a huge role in trading and I find these quotes to be quite interesting for how they can be true for trading as well, definitely there are more quotes from Bruce worth mentioning that relate well with trading but i don’t have all day 🤪

How To Manage Your FOMO

BESOMEBODYFX

FEAR OF MISSING OUT

Trades
besomebodyfx
HOW TO MANAGE YOUR FOMO
With the recent volatility in the market, it’s time for every trader to start managing their emotions and most of all their FOMO (Fear of missing out)

I’m writing this post down to teach you a process useful in your trading to help you avoid poor decisions, because most of a trader losses are due to bad decision taken emotionally and instinctively…

You see a sharp move in the markets…

Maybe you even predicted that move...

But you didn’t execute your order, now the pair is moving and you don’t want to miss it out, you want to jump into the train not realizing tho that it’s arriving to the station hence it’s too late, your risk reward is now awful and you take a poor trade that’s maybe going in your favour for a few pips but then reverses, squeezes you out of it and then resumes in the original direction…

The image below is the perfect representation of that:

You may think:

“well this happens once and then you learn from it”

Well no, many never learn from this and they keep repeating the same mistake.

Why?

Because the markets are good at fooling people, it is literally what it does every day, and it evolves day after day to always stay ahead of your game so that you can be fooled over and over again.

So how can you solve this problem and never fall for it again?

This is what we are going to speak about in this post so sit back, take a notepad and write down some notes…

First, its important to understand that the fear of missing out is not a once and done type of thing, it’s a process that sparks a series of poor decisions, because when you take a loss or you get trapped by the marked to then see it unfold in the direction you predicted but this time without you, that sparks a sentiment of frustration that can be extremely damaging for your trading, because in the next few trades you can jeopardize your account because you don’t want to get “fooled” again by the market like the last time.

Think about it, did you ever hold into a trade moving you stop loss just because the last one stop hunted you to the pip?

So what’s the solution to this?

The solution to not jeopardize your trade while open is “simple”, have a plan, set an entry, set a stop loss, set a target and DON’T touch anything once you are into the trade, if your plan is good enough in advance you don’t need to do anything when you are in the trade.

If you entered it in the first place there must be a solid reason to, right? 

So why you need to watch it every 2 seconds?

BUT HOW TO AVOID STUPID TRADES?

Before you enter the trade you need to go trough a few steps to avoid an emotional decison…

I want you to manage your behavior better, to create a set of good habits, so let me give you a set of good rules.

First, when you are entering a trade:

Print this image and stick it on your desk, every time you are about to enter a trade you need to ask yourself:

Am I getting FOMO, am I getting at the best price for this trade; can I get trapped by the volatility here and lose control, is it a rational trade driven by solid reasons or I’m just trying to make up a lost trade?

If any of these is a yes then, take a breath, count to 10, control your breathing and you can even get up and move away from the chart.

It’s NOT EASY to do, but it’s a habit, once you have carved it into your daily trading you will bring this with yourself forever, you must work on it tho, so you must do it every single time you take a trade.

THE EMOTIONAL TRADE

Understand that an emotional trade will quickly bring you an undesired outcome (a loss) sometimes even bigger than what you wanted because you don’t set a stop loss or you move that stop loss further away or you take too many random trades in a state of complete panic and confusion trying to cover the losses.

While instead, an emotional trade can turn into a desired outcome too (a profit) if put through a set of good habits, so, for instance, controlling your breathing, stepping away from the charts for a few minutes, drinking some water, anything that can help you in your decision making…

So every time you take a trade, go trough a set of habits that you prefer to make sure you are not entering into an emotional trade.

But now let me honestly tell you, emotions are not only what’s stopping you from making more profits, If you are finding that you are getting chopped out a lot in these markets and you are questioning your approach, well traders usually are are not taking into account enough fundamental information, geopolitical news, they are not aware of what the average retail trader is doing, where they are positioning themselves vs the hedge funds and the institutions, it’s really important to be aware of this and be aware of market sentiment, trade flow, cycles, seasonality and understand how to apply everything together, that’s what will give you the edge in the markets, so if you are missing one of these and you would like to join a community of successful traders and learn a research driven approach, you have the opportunity to do so, as a member of the BeSomebodyFX Private Network you get access to our exclusive trading tools, real time trading signals (both long and short term), trading researches and market insights, private academy section, support from experienced professional traders, daily briefings, weekly briefings etc…

And last but not least, access to a community of institutional traders to help you remain focused and disciplined.

Click on the link below to join the private network now…

BeSomebodyFX Private Network