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The Real Fundamental Analysis

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BESOMEBODYFX

THE REAL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

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BESOMEBODYFX
A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO FOREX FUNDAMENTALS
WHAT’S THE BEST BOOK ABOUT TRADING WITH FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS?

I hear that question A LOT.

Traders need a SOLID textbook resource to understand fundamentals.

I get it.

And so I did it.

The real fundamental analysis book cover

We have condensed all the fundamental knowledge you need in about 128 pages.

A book guide of 128 pages that teaches you the REAL fundamental analysis, NOT the average type of stuff that you can find anywhere else.

Real, practical, actionable fundamentals.

The ones we trade in our public Telegram channel to get trades like this:

Trade example
Update on the trade example

And also in the Private Network to get trades like this:

Trade signal with pending order

And I can go on and on with examples.

But the point is…

We have condensed all that knowledge at the price of just a regular book.

Literally, in about 128 pages you will get MORE than what you would find in any overpriced course out there.

For real.

From the basics of understanding the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy.

To more advanced subjects like bonds and yields.

To practical applications like knowing how to keep track of it all efficiently.

And of course, a LOT more.

In other words…

This book guide is NOT just about the theory.

It’s about the REAL fundamentals, the ones that you can REALLY use to improve, refine, and optimize your trading to be more consistent.

Now, don’t get me wrong.

Will you instantly become an expert at fundamentals after reading it?

No. That’s NOT how it works.

But…

Will you be able to finally understand the subject in a way that is applicable to your trading to have a SOLID foundation from where you can improve and fine tune your strategy to include both technicals and fundamentals EFFICIENTLY?

Yes, without a doubt.

So…

Where to get it?

If all what we mentioned here sounds like a good suit for you.

You can download the full guide from Gumroad’s marketplace…

Available on Gumroad right now.

You will also find a preview of the first 9 pages there 😉

With that also said…

If you need more information, tap the chat at the bottom right and reach out with your questions.

We reply fairly quickly, usually.

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Crypto Global Macro Q2 2024

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BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q2 2024
TURNING NEUTRAL TO POTENTIALLY BEARISH. HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW…

Crypto is in full bull market mode.

People are looking for the next 100X coin, and BTC is going to 100k.

Looks and feels euphoric.

Risk assets are all benefiting from the same surge in risk appetite fueled by the FED’s decision to soon start cutting rates.

With that in mind…

We took profits on our positions.

In the previous crypto update we have mentioned how yes the context was still bullish, but…

How risks were rising and how we were looking to take profit.

And we did.

The clear bullish phase was from when the FED stopped hiking rates.

We positioned for that in the Private Network with both S&P500 and ETH longs. We took profits on the S&P500 longs in mid January, and we took profits on the ETH longs in mid February.

Yes, a bit too early.

Things went much after that.

But we caught a good chunk of the run anyway.

Now…

We have two policy scenarios ahead.

One where the FED starts cutting rates.

Which, counterintuitively, is NOT exacty bullish.

Remember? The 2019 type of price action:

When the FED starts to cut rates the economy takes a turn, usually.

And that’s NOT bullish for risk assets, crypto included.

While instead, the other type of scenario is one where inflation bottoms…

Forcing the FED to keep rates higher for longer.

Ok, hold on a second…

Two slightly higher than expected inflation prints don’t make a resurge in inflation the base case. I doubt high inflation is going to be the scenario. But it’s a possibility.

So, you get the point.

Risks for risk assets are… rising.

Whether that’s a recession, a resurge in inflation, or both together. We can’t know.

But what we can know is that the risk reward from a technical and fundamental perspective is NOT favorable for staying long right now.

And so we took profits.

What to keep in mind…

The straightforward bullish phase was from when the FED stopped hiking rates.

Now the fundamental context starts to turn more mixed, less clear, simply…

Riskier.

Keep that in mind.

Farily straightforward.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Crypto Global Macro Q1 2024

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CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q1 2024
STILL LONG AND BULLISH. sO, WHERE DO WE want to see to take profit?

Alright.

Now it’s time to start talking about what to look for to start taking profits.

In the previous crypto update we have mentioned how dip buying was the way to go for the quarter.

Both for fundamental reasons:

But also, seasonally:

Now…

What’s the next story?
MONETARY POLICY CONTEXT:

Remember rate cuts?

Seems such a distant thing, isn’t it?

I mean, the FED hasn’t been cutting rates since 2020.

And at the start of the year it looked like they weren’t going to cut for a long long while either.

But that’s not the case.

Inflation is almost back near FED’s target in the US.

And it’s basically already at the ECB’s target in Europe.

That’s to say…

Rate cuts for most central banks are NOT a distant thing right now.

At all.

The FED with their latest dot plot is also officially expecting to deliver at least three rate cuts this year:

And Powell confirmed that at the latest FOMC:

So…

What do we need to know about that?

Well, to illustrate the point correctly, let me show you just two charts.

Two simple but VERY important charts…

Alright.

First, here’s BTC in 2019 with some notes attached about the fundamental context in that period:

Sounds familiar, right?

Yes.

It’s similar to the price action and the context over the past two quarters.

It sure is.

FED stopped hiking rates, and BTC started a small bull run.

Same exact fundamental story.

Same exact price behaviour.

That’s fundamental analysis.

Now, let me show you the part that matters right now.

Here’s how that chart continues…

Interesting, right?

I mean, rate cuts are…

Bearish?

Yes.

And no.

But also… yes.

Think about it this way…

Usually, when the FED starts cutting rates, the economy is about to tumble.

And that brings down risk assets with it.

The reason?

Because the FED lags, a lot.

So when they do see the need for rate cuts, that means that the economy behind the curtains has taken a turn already and a recession is not that far.

And that’s when it’s time to take profit.

Makes sense?

Awesome.

So with that said.

what to keep in mind…

Whether that’s crypto, equities, and whatnot.

When the FED thinks it’s time to cut, we square the longs.

That simple.

So keep that CONTEXT in mind and you will be able to take profit on this bull run at the right timing.

But also keep in mind…

Until the FED starts seriously talking about cuts, we remain long and bullish.

I mean, the FED will likely start cutting rates in March.

So there’s still soom room for a bit more upside until the first rate cut.

Meaning, we can still ride a bit more upside.

And that’s all there’s needed to know right now.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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A real example of Forex trading with Fundamentals

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BESOMEBODYFX

A REAL EXAMPLE OF FOREX TRADING WITH FUNDAMENTALS

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BESOMEBODYFX
The fundamentals that matter to trade consistently
YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE ABOUT WHAT FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS REALLY IS ABOUT? cool, let me show you something interesting.

Ok, let me throw you into a trading scenario right away.

It’s FOMC rate decision day and Powell is about to get to the microphone…

There’s tension, like always, for what he’s going to say.

The FED hiked interest rates by more than 500bps in the span of a year or so.

Unprecedented.

Historical.

Now once again Powell has all the attention at this meeting…

The market, journalists, investors, traders.

We all want to know if he thinks the FED needs to hike more or not.

So we wait…

Powell is little late…

Not his usual.

The man is always on time.

What’s he doing back there? Is he tweaking his speech right at the very last?

Maybe he didn’t like the market reaction to the rate decision and he’s preparing to address that?

Mh…

Oh wait, hearing the clicks and flashes of the cameras, means he’s here…

Yes, there he is:

FOMC interest rate decision

Powell takes on the microphone and, as regularly, he goes on with the introductory statement.

There’s something interesting in there but nothing that hasn’t been said on the text release that the FED published 30 minutes earlier.

You know, the one attached with the rate decision:

FOMC text statement

That sometimes can have interesting bits of insights but often the most interesting part is when Powell takes question.

And that comes right after the introductory statement.

And there he is…

Powell is now taking questions from the press…

FOMC press conference

Keywords like “higher for longer” and “fewer rate cuts” dominate in most of his answers.

What do we call that?

Hawkish.

And what does hawkish mean for the Dollar?

Bullish.

Yes.

We brief the Private Network with our thoughts on the matter:

Briefing our thoughts about the FOMC

Now headlines from the major news outlets are hitting the wires too.

Bloomberg is on the same page…

Bloomberg interpretation of the interest rate decision

Hawkish it is.

Powell and the FED are saying that there might be another rate hike ahead and mostly… they want to keep rates high for higher than anticipated.

Alright, what’s the trade?

Scanning through the charts to see what Dollar pair gives the best technical setup.

The best technical setup? What do you mean?

Yes, the best price action, the best risk reward.

All that kind of stuff.

We update again the Private Network with a detailed daily briefing with out thoughts and ideas:

So, yes…

Let’s put the trade on:

Forex trade based on the fundamental analysis of the FOMC rate decision

Alright?

Perfect.

And now?

And now we wait…

More headlines keep hitting the wires from Bloomberg:

Bloomberg headline again with more details about the FOMC

All still hawkish interpretations.

And the price action on the chart so far looks good, nothing crazy going on like random fades and whatnot.

Cool.

Now the next step is to just let the trade play out?

Yes.

It’s to keep track of the fundamentals and let the trade unfold.

The fundamental flows that shape the trend:

What happens after an important FOMC are two things…

First, other macro traders start positioning according to the latest sentiment and forward guidance from the FED.

Which in this specific example is?

Hawkish.

Which for the Dollar means?

Bullish.

And second, the traders that are on the wrong side of that sentiment start closing their positions.

I mean…

What happens to Dollar bears if the context turns bullish?

They have to cover their positions because they are on the wrong side of the sentiment.

Either they hit stop loss or they close their trades manually.

So what happens with these two types of flows?

We have Dollar bulls adding because the fundamentals are in their favor.

And Dollar bears squaring their shorts because they are on the wrong side.

So?

So a trend is created.

A fundamental trend.

We update about the potential trade setup on the public Telegram channel as well:

Trade based on fundamental analysis

And there it is…

Update to the trade

That’s a real trade based on real fundamentals.

And that’s the kind of fundamental trading in Forex that matters.

So…

What it is REALLY about?

Fundamentals in Forex is about understanding the sentiment:

Yes.

Market sentiment.

Fundamental sentiment.

Fundamental context.

Macro context.

They are all the same thing.

Fundamentals are the sentiment and the sentiment is a product of the fundamental context.

In simple…

If the market is trending that means there is a specific sentiment, and that sentiment is a product of a specific fundamental context.

Read that again if you need to.

Done?

Cool.

With that said…

This is the simple and effective way of thinking about fundamentals.

Sounds easy, right?

Well, maybe.

But it’s NOT something that you can learn overnight just by reading a single article.

No.

It’s something that you have to learn from real trading with real traders.

That’s what builds experience.

So if you like that professional way of doing things that both builds your experience and gives you good trades to follow…

Then check the Private Network.

That’s where you can follow our exact trades and read our thought process to build and grow your fundamental knowledge 😉

And I mean trades like this:

Trade signal with pending order

With all the various updates along the way:

Cool?

Cool.

And now with that said.

There’s still one thing to add…

The most important part about Forex fundamentals:

Alright.

Always keep in mind that the quality of your fundamental analysis is directly correlated with the quality of the information that you get.

I mean it.

That is really the most important thing that you can understand about the subject.

So?

So follow the right sources.

The right traders.

The real ones.

That’s what makes the difference.

If you liked this article and you enjoy this kind of straightforward content, leave us your email down below to get updated if we publish another one like this.

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Effective ways to follow Forex Fundamentals

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BESOMEBODYFX

BEST WAY TO FOLLOW FOREX FUNDAMENTALS

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BESOMEBODYFX
The right way to keep track of fundamentals in forex trading
the most effective ways to stay well updated with the important macro developments in the markets.

Undoubtedly, staying up to date with all the news flow and market developments is essential to trade fundamentals appropriately.

Logical, right?

Yes.

So how do you actually do it in a way that is simple and straightforward?

I mean…

How do you stay up to date with everything going on in the markets without driving yourself crazy?

And even more than that…

How do you filter out the noise and the useless information to get ONLY what really matters for your trading?

Those are some pretty good and important questions.

So…

Let me give you the RIGHT answers.

Use the right platforms:

Wait.

I get it.

“Use the right platforms” is as boring of a subheading as it gets.

But, bear with me a second…

Because we are going to start with some boring, but essential stuff, to then lead into the more original insights.

Sounds cool?

Alright.

So…

WHAT ARE THE BEST PLATFORMS TO STAY UPDATED WITH FOREX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS?
Well, first and foremost let’s start with the most obvious one.
 

Which is?

Twitter.

Or X.

Not sure exactly what to call it nowadays.

Either way, you get the one I’m talking about.

Twitter is an amazing source of information BUT…

It’s also where traders just shout random useless fluff.

And I mean really, REALLY useless fluff.

But that’s nothing new, isn’t it?

Yes. I know you know how Twitter works so let me give you something MORE interesting and way better organized than that.

Twitter for a trader is cool, but Tweetdeck is… COOLER.

What’s that?

Here’s a Tweetdeck:

Tweetdeck to follow Forex fundamental analysis

It’s basically Twitter but with a more organized feel to it.

Yes because you get to cherry pick who gets in there and the Tweetdeck streams all of the tweets from the sources you decide to add.

And it does so in real time.

Cool stuff, right?

Yes, especially because you can get profiles that share important fundamental articles so you can have your specific column for the news flow and various economic releases.

Something like this with Bloomberg:

Bloomberg article about the FED and interest rates

You can really get creative with this.

But remember…

Twitter, whether it’s a Tweetdeck or the original, is as distracting as it gets.

I mean…

The line between useful and just annoyingly distracting is very VERY thin.

You MUST make it a priority to follow ONLY high quality profiles that deliver VALUE and that DON’T spam you with useless content.

Keep that well in mind or you will drive yourself crazy trying to follow random stuff left and right.

I can’t stress this enough.

So for instance, learn how to use the “filters” to narrow down only to certain keywords like:

Filters for the most useful fundamental articles

These are the exact filters in the Bloomberg column that you see in the previous image.

As you can see it’s narrowed down to the major central banks, that way it filters out all the irrelevant articles while focusing only on the ones that are actionable and market related.

And by the way…

Make sure to follow our Twitter too.

We keep it super related to useful market insights with no fluff whatsoever…

Ok, now…

What else is there to keep track of fundamentals?

Well…

What about the good old Bloomberg itself?

That’s a great one, obviously.

But, there’s also another interesting alternative to that…

ForexLive.

Fundamental headlines and market sentiment:

It’s nothing new and super original I know.

Bloomberg and ForexLive are two classic places to get high quality articles and headlines to stay well up to date on everything going on in the markets from a fundamental point of view.

But wait a second.

Because there is an important detail that makes a big difference.

And I mean a really BIG difference.

Curious?

So, when you head to ForexLive the homepage basically has posts like this:

Forexlive website

That’s ok, nothing wrong with that.

But in reality, you DON’T need all of that generic market commentary.

We as traders need content that is more targeted, more niched down to what actually matters for the market, right?

That’s right.

So, one way to do that is to head to more useful sections.

Like the central banks’ section…

And that will filter down to articles that are more related to currencies and stuff that matters for currencies…

Section on ForexLive about central banks

You know, monetary policy and central banks?

Pretty important stuff in Forex trading.

Now what about Bloomberg?

On Bloomberg it’s a similar thing.

But there’s something extra that you will love.

LONG FORM MARKET UPDATES…

Yes, because on top of the classic insightful articles, Bloomberg has a lot of live shows and video content to follow to stay up to date with the markets.

There’s plenty every single day for all market sessions.

And you can find them on Bloomberg itself:

Bloomberg market surveillance

Or on Youtube:

Fundamental insights from Bloomberg on Youtube

But wait…

Two or more hours of content per show?

I mean, is it even useful?

Well… kinda.

They have plenty of awesome experts and professionals on there that talk markets that are well worth a listen.

But there’s a caveat.

They cover A LOT of stuff.

And I mean also stuff that is NOT really relevant for trading purposes.

So it’s great for staying updated overall.

But…

Let’s do better.

We want to get MORE specific.

More targeted to articles that are actually highly relevant and useful to Forex trading.

More effective, so to speak.

So is there a way to do that?

Yes, there is.

How to get even MORE precise and targeted fundamental articles:

So here is a fantastic piece of advice that will make you way more effective at this.

Ready?

On Google, just search for whatever you are looking for plus the keyword “Bloomberg” and head to the news section.

Like this:

Bloomberg articles to stay updated with Forex fundamentals

With this you have all the latest articles from Bloomberg on that specific topic.

Literally, you can target everything you need at any time you want.

For instance…

An important FOMC meeting just got done?

Cool, search for “FOMC Bloomberg” and you get all the related articles.

And of course…

You can do this with whatever source you prefer.

I like Bloomberg so I’m using that for this example.

There are many other alternatives, but in terms of straightforwardness, I will say…

Bloomberg is there at the top.

Their headlines are often enough to grasp the sentiment of the whole article for a quick sentiment check.

Look at this one for instance:

Inflation elevated prompting more rate hikes

See?

The headline and the first two paragraphs often tell you all you need to know.

You get the point.

Ok.

Now wait a second tho.

Like…

Are these the absolute best ways to do it or is there something else?

Well, that’s a VERY good question.

How to be effective in your fundamental analysis:

These two are some basic methods to keep an eye on what’s fundamentally going on in the market.

And they are great, but…

But what?

But they are NOT the most practical and effective methods.

Facts.

Because when you read an article on Bloomberg or when you scroll through Twitter you MUST have an incredible ability in filtering out all the noise and random chatter that is NOT actionable for your trading.

And on top of that, you also need to interpret, understand, and apply correctly what you are reading.

Otherwise, you just get thrown off track into the wrong trades.

So… easier said than done, right?

True.

Just by having these two methods mentioned above you won’t suddenly understand fundamental analysis better.

At all.

You still need that experience to put into action correctly what you read around.

And that’s where the famous “work smart, not hard” comes into play.

What do I mean?

I mean that you can be smart simply by following other professional traders to use their expertise to have a good guide and picture of everything that’s going on in the markets.

Almost like delegating the complex task.

Literally, you let someone else do the complex work for you.

Sounds quite an advantage, right?

It is.

So how can you do that properly?

I mean…

How can you follow more experienced traders to guide you and give you the correct fundamental context you need for your trading?

Well, time for the self promotional bit now 😉.

The Private Network is the place for that.

That’s where you can follow our fundamental insights, guidance, and exact trades.

And I mean trades with exact entry and exit details.

Like this:

Trade signal with pending order

With then all the various updates to the trade along the way:

And with insightful daily briefings like the one below that keep you always up to date with what matters across the markets:

Really.

All the good stuff to keep you on top of all you need to know in a straightforward format so that you don’t have to waste time and energy every day trying to catch up with all the fundamental developments across markets.

In other words…

The complex trading tasks, done for you.

Pretty good, isn’t it?

I know.

Ok, with that said.

Is there anything there anything else to add to this article to complete it?

Yes.

But first…

If you like this kind of educational articles you can leave us your email down below to get updated when we publish something else like this.

And now with that said…

Three points I want you to take away from this article…

So keep these in mind:

  • Twitter is a VERY useful tool for traders but you have to be super disciplined and skilled at ignoring the fluff and distractions, a Tweetdeck can help you with that.
  • Bloomberg and ForexLive are a great method to get a grasp of the sentiment around important market events. Specifically, Bloomberg’s headlines are quite precise and useful for that.
  • You don’t have to do all the heavy lifting yourself, be smart, and get yourself around other professional traders who do it for you, and do it better.

Alright, that’s all there is to say…

And I guess that’s all there’s to say on this, these are the right ways to always be on top of everything going on across the markets fundamentally.

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Crypto Global Macro Q4 2023

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CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q4 2023
NOT SUPER BULLISH BUT ALSO NOT BEARISH. WHAT’S THE OVERALL CONTEXT FOR CRYPTO AND HOW ARE WE POSITIONED?

Alright.

Straight to the point…

Has anything changed in the crypto space?

No.

Not really.

In the previous crypto update we talked about how we were bullish biased for the time being on BTC.

And well…

That hasn’t changed.

And there’s also nothing new to add to what we discussed in the previous update, so…

BORING.

I know.

Crypto right now feels a little… boring.

But hey, boring usually precedes interesting moves so boring is also interesting.

But ok.

Are we still bullish?

Yes.

Let me show you…

The fundamental sentiment around risk assets:

So, first of all…

The recession keeps getting postponed, doesn’t it?

Looks like.

This kind of context over the medium term is supportive for higher risk assets such as the NASDAQ and the S&P500.

But what about crypto?

Like… where is BTC in all this?

Well, some of the models we look at are flashing green for potential upside.

We look at a variety of factors but in this update let me show you one of the most curious.

Which is?

Google trends…

Yes, yes.

I know.

It feels SUPER cringy to look at Google trends to get the sentiment for crypto.

But hey…

It’s not that bad at all.

Most of the upticks in searches have preceeded or matched large upswings in price.

So a cringy, but potentially useful leading indicator.

But ok.

Is that by itself really enough to be bullish?

No.

Of course not.

So let’s get a bit more specific…

Where monetary policy and the FED are at:

No doubts…

The aggressive tightening cycle is history already.

The FED is essentially done hiking.

And now rates should stabilize at 5.50% for some time…

Which is evident from their latest dot plot:

They see a possibility of another 25bps hike in November.

But after that…

Rates are seen on hold.

So…

Is this bullish? Is this bearish? What is it?

It’s… neither.

The current monetary policy context is faily neutral for the overall sentiment.

Sure, interest rates at 5.25% are NOT bullish.

But the fact that they are NOT going to 6% and that inflation is moderating farily well at the moment IS… bullish.

So?

So let’s recap…

the overall macro context and sentiment:

The monetary policy context is farily neutral but the growth context is fairly bullish.

And that overall makes the context slightly bullish for BTC.

Sure, it’s pretty stale as of right now, but isn’t that what the market does?

Bore traders to dump their holdings because “the market isn’t going anywhere” before taking off?

Fact.

But wait.

Don’t get me wrong.

I’m NOT saying BTC will soon take off to 100k.

I’m saying that slightly higher prices from here are more likely than lower.

More or less.

You get the point.

35k is more likely than 20k for BTC, so to speak.

With that said…

What to keep in mind…

This is STILL fundamentally the moment to be in a “soft” unleveraged dip buying mode for us.

But remember…

The word “soft” in that sentence is VERY important because the context is NOT perfectly bullish, at all.

I mean, this is NO context to be buying dips left and right with leverage.

No, but it’s good enough to have some exposure anyway.

We hold some small unleveraged positions and we just sit on those patiently.

That’s all there’s needed to know right now.

The next update for crypto will be in the first week of 2024 so if you want to get a few more interesting and useful info along the way while also being alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Forex Signals To Trade Consistently 2024

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BESOMEBODYFX

BEST FOREX SIGNALS TO TRADE CONSISTENTLY

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THE BEST TELEGRAM CHANNEL FOR FOREX SIGNALS AND INSIGHTS
THERE’S WAY TOO MANY OUT THERE, AND WAY TOO MANY UNPROFESSIONAL ONES TOO. SO, WHO’S THE BEST The FOLLOW?

I know, you are looking for a solid Telegram channel for Forex trading. I mean, a reliable and professional channel for Forex signals to trade consistently, right?

Got it.

It’s VERY rare to find a good signal provider,

And it’s even rarer to find a reliable and professional trader to get consistent signals for Forex trading.

I know.

There are soo many out there and they are all just a copy and paste of each other.

And I mean… a copy and paste of unprofessionalism.

Facts.

So let me show you something different.

Something waay more professional and reliable.

A Telegram channel that you can follow right now to get professional and reliable trade recommendations.

And I mean the real good trades.

Cool?

It sure is.

The best Telegram channel to follow for Forex trading:
 

Alright, let’s put it very simply.

If you want to follow a Telegram channel that sends you professional, reliable, and accurate trade ideas then BeSomebodyFX is the one.

https://t.me/BeSomebodyFX

I mean…

Look at this trade for instance:

Forex trade analysis with technical chart

Solid stuff.

But even better…

Here’s how that particular trade unfolded:

Take profit hit on the trade

Cool?

Cool.

Now, wait a second tho…

Will you find trade ideas every single day?

No. Absolutely not.

But…

Will you find reliable and professional medium term trades well detailed and well explained to follow with confidence?

Absolutely yes.

And that’s the point…

Quality over quantity.

We are talking about the kind of fundamental signals that are highly professional and VERY well researched.

Again, like this…

Insightful Forex signal from Telegram channel

And by the way, I want you to notice something in particular.

Something VERY important.

See all the comprehensive details around the trade idea?

Yes.

Do you like that?

Yes, I know. It’s pretty good stuff.

That gives you the context you need to first understand the trade properly, and second to follow it with confidence.

That matters. And the reason is so that you are NOT just following trades blindly without even knowing what you are doing.

Much better than the average signal provider, right?

I know, I know.

Like… look at the update of the trade mentioned above:

Knowing as many details as you can about the trade you are following makes a difference.

It really does.

But wait, because there’s MORE.

Yes, there’s even more than just Forex signals…
 

I mean, signals are great and I know you love those. But what about some other insightful trading content too?

Something like educational articles about trading?

Yes…

Educational Forex articles about fundamental analysis

Detailed, clean, and insightful trade examples with Forex fundamental analysis that you can study and learn from.

Really.

And by the way…

You can find the full article about how fundamental analysis makes the difference in Forex trading right here.

That’s the kind of content that you can dive deep into and learn A LOT from. NOT some generic or boring article.

Again, good stuff.

Then what about some highly insightful tweets with specific market comments?

You said it…

And I can go on and on with examples…

But ok…

Let’s get to the point.

What exactly am I trying to say here?

Well, one thing.

Here it is…

If you want the best trades, follow professional traders:
 

I know, I said the obvious there.

I mean OF COURSE if you want to have good trades you have to follow traders that know what they are doing.

That’s super obvious.

But wait a second…

Are you sure you are following professional traders?

Think about that.

It’s a VERY important question, right?

Well, it is.  And that’s exactly the RIGHT question to ask yourself.

So be VERY selective and evaluate attentively the QUALITY of the traders that you follow.

But wait…

How do you recognize the professional ones?

Well, just remember these key traits:

  • Professionalism.
  • Reliability.
  • Quality over quantity.

They are all related.

And they matter A LOT.

Yes.

Because the professionalism and the quality of the signal providers that you follow make a substantial difference in the quality of the trades that you receive.

And if you want to level up and keep your trading to a more professional and consistent approach then check the Private Network as well.

That’s where you get trade recommendations like this:

Forex signal

With all the related updates during the trade, like this:

Update on the trade recommendation

Along with highly insightful daily briefings to keep you PERFECTLY up to date with what really matters in the markets.

Market briefings with fundamental analysis

That is the kind of stuff that you need if you want to be consistent and professional in your trading.

So you have the option to get on the Private Network if you want more content, more trades, more updates. But at the same time you can just enjoy the public Telegram channel if that’s enough for your trading.

Absolutely.

So with that said:
 

The BeSomebodyFX Telegram channel is the type of professionalism that you should follow for accurate and consistent trades.

And there it is.

Now you have a reliable Telegram channel to follow for your trading. It’s quite an advantage nowadays, isn’t it?

I know, it is.

You get the best trades, the best insights, and the best analysis, all well packaged for you to read, learn from, and take action on

Alright, that’s all there is to say…

Follow smart traders to make your trading easier, and to trade consistently, period.

Posted on

Crypto Global Macro Q3 2023

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CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q3 2023
Bullish it is, there is one particular narrative that is and will continue to support price.

Alright, bear with me for a second.

In the previous crypto update we explained how and why we were bullish and long from 24k and 26k.

Great.

31k and something printed, at that point we ended up taking profit at 29.5k and turned defensive…

After that, BTC printed a low near 24k and staged a massive run back above 30k in what? Two days?

That was a fast one.

A little too fast.

But ok.

Now what?

Bullish from here? Bearish from here? What’s next?

Well, here’s what you MUST know…

The current fundamental sentiment:
 

As usual, I will try not to bore you with too much detailed fundamental analysis so let’s get straight to the matter, sounds good?

Alright, to put it simply…

We are now in dip buying mode on BTC.

The reason?

Well, there is a narrative that is and will continue to provide some support to sentiment for risk assets, crypto included.

What’s that?

The AI boost…

Yes.

What’s happening with AI is boosting growth and productivity leading to lower recession probabilities, higher growth expectations, and higher margins and earnings for large tech companies.

All good stuff for something like the NASDAQ, right?

Yes, but BTC isn’t the NASDAQ…

Or is it?

Well, what’s good for stocks in general tends to be good for crypto too.

A boost to growth expectations is overall bullish for all risk assets, and BTC as you know is on that pretty list.

But with that said…

Where is the FED in all this?

Literally… can we make a complete macro update on crypto without talking about the FED and monetary policy?

No way.

The macro context in more details:
 

So, this is where it gets a little more complex because interest rates are a little too high, aren’t they?

Yes, but the tightening is slowing down.

From here there are officially just two more 25bps hikes expected.

Here’s the latest dot plot published from the FED:

See all those dots stacked at 5.6% for the year?

That’s the majority at the FED expecting two more hikes from current levels.

Is that bullish?

No, not at all.

So is that bearish?

No, not at all either.

It’s kind of… neutral.

Monetary policy is now in this spot where it’s a bit bearish but also a bit bullish.

Like… rates are above 5% and that’s too high which is slightly bearish.

But, the FED is slowing down and near pausing which is slightly bullish.

Mixed, right?

Yes.

Now, what matters is that as long as the FED doesn’t go off script and sticks to what’s projected then the market can focus on something else.

Something else like what?

Like the bullish narrative with the growth boost from the AI story?

Yes.

But waait a second…

Isn’t this whole AI thing like the early phase of a bubble?

The AI bubble?

Sure, could be.

I mean, historically that’s how all significant innovations started, right?

Yes, and this is EXACTLY the point.

Bubbles can inflate assets for much longer than anyone can think of.

Literally, waiting for one to pop or even worse trying to catch the top is… NOT the right strategy.

So intead… what is the right strategy?

Riding it?

Yes.

Riding it in its early phases and then turning VERY cautious and defensive when it becomes too obvious.

Easier said than done, but it can be done. And it is much better than trying to pick its top.

Sound cool?

Alright.

Bullish and positioned:
 

That’s all there is to know about crypto at the moment.

In simple words…

This is fundamentally the context to be in a “soft” dip buying mode.

Soft? Why soft?

Well, if we really want to be precise NOT all boxes are ticked for a perfect bull run.

Obviously, monetary policy is NOT where it should be to go full clip on the long side, plain and simple.

But…

But, the AI narrative is enough to get some exposure to more upside.

And thus we are in dip buying mode on BTC at the moment.

Actually…

We are already long.

Not on BTC itself but on something else.

It’s a fresh position opened very recently, I can say that.

If you want to follow our exact trades and moves you should check the Private Network. That’s where we alert on every position we take with all the related details and updates.

With that said…

What to keep in mind…
 

Right now what you need to know from this update on crypto is that we are bullish and positioned while also ready to add size on dips on BTC.

I mean… 

Don’t go full size at these prices, use a dip buying approach to build a better entry in case the market pulls back a bit from here, which is obviously a possible scenario.

So, we will keep an eye on how the context further develops during the quarter to add on dips and adjust accordingly where needed. If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Fundamental analysis that makes the difference in Forex

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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS THAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE

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FUNDAMENTALS FOR CONSIsTENT AND ACCURATE TRADES
FOREX FUNDAMENTALs EXPLAINED AND ILLUSTRATED STEP BY STEP in actionable and practical details.

Once you know about fundamental analysis, you need to know what it looks like in action.

I mean…

It’s one thing to know the fundamentals, but it’s another thing to know THE fundamentals.

Wait, whaat?

That sentence doesn’t make sense, doesn’t it?

Well, It doesn’t.

It doesn’t until you get the RIGHT information.

Now…

Do you want to know what’s that all about?

Well, here it is…

Fundamental forex trades:
 

Context…

Context is the keyword when we talk about fundamentals.

But what’s that exactly?

See, when we look at the theory of funda… wait.

I know you were about to snooze out as soon as I say the words “theory” and “fundamentals” together in the same sentence so let’s change that…

Let me show you something MUCH more enjoyable and practical than some classic textbook technical definitions.

Sounds better?

It sure does.

So let’s take a real trade to use as an example for the discussion:

Forex trade analysis with technical chart

Ok…

First, what stands out from that trade example above?

Notice that: “fundamentally looking for this chop to resolve to the downside”.

Like… what does that even mean?

What does it mean to expect something fundamentally? What’s that about?

Well… let me show you.

Fundamental analysis and market trends:
 

See, at any moment in time if the market is trending there is a story driving that trend.

And in this trade in particular there was a narrative that was slowly starting to gain consensus.

Which was?

Inflation in the UK that was NOT moving lower fast enough:

Inflation elevated prompting more rate hikes

That raised expectations for MORE rate hikes from the BoE.

All while inflation in the EU instead was instead slowing down.

Ok.

Now this is the part where we go a bit nerdy and technical into the fundamental aspect of the trade.

Ready?

Perfect.

Think about what that actually means for the respective central banks?

I mean for the ECB and the BoE.

If inflation is slowing down in Europe what does that mean for the ECB policy expectations… and if inflation is instead rising in the UK what does that mean for the BoE?

Simply… or not so simply depending on how much you know about monetary policy.

That means the ECB might NOT need to raise rates much higher while the BoE might instead need to do MORE… right?

Yes, that’s absolutely RIGHT.

And that… THAT was the sentiment growing in the pair, which was making it trend gradually lower.

Are you following so far?

Good, but now let’s get even MORE practical.

The trade:
 

So the trade was clear, we quickly went bearish on the pair expecting that narrative to continue and…

Trade moves towards take profit

The narrative unfolded pretty nicely, inflation in Europe kept printing soft, and as a result of that the market kept increasing the divergence between the expectations for BoE hikes relative to the ECB.

More hikes from the BoE, less hikes from the ECB.

And that brought the pair to the target:

Take profit hit on the trade

And this… THIS is a trade based on fundamental analysis.

Cool, but… what else?

I mean…

You want to know MORE, right?

Of course you do. So let’s bring it a step further…

Market sentiment:
 

Think about what the whole analysis revolves around.

What is it?

Market sentiment…

Right?

Yes. It’s about narrative, it’s about understanding whatever the dominant story is in the markets at any given moment in time.

In other words…

If the market is trending there is always a story and a sentiment driving that trend. And understanding THAT story is what fundamental analysis in Forex is REALLY about.

Ok, that’s interesting but now let me tell you something MORE.

Because we said a lot but we haven’t really said anything yet.

So now let’s get to THE point… the real point that will drive your understanding of all this in the right direction.

WHAT REALLY MATTERS ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS:
 

Ok, listen VERY closely to this next paragraph because it is the essence of the whole matter… the CORE of what you can practically use in your trading, the single concept that can give you a whole new understanding of fundamentals.

Cool?

Alright.

Here it is.

At any moment in time, when you know and understand the fundamental driver moving the market you can ask yourself…

Should this fundamental sentiment continue? Or is it near exhausting?

A simple question with an amazingly useful and actionable answer.

Yes, because the answer to that question tells you whether you should expect the trend to continue OR… whether you should expect a reversal or a countertrend pullback.

Read that again.

Done?

Good, now let me give you MORE context to make the point clearer…

EXAMPLE OF FUNDAMENTAL THEORY IN ACTION:
 

Let’s take a hypothetical example where the FED is keeping interest rates at very low levels with also a large QE program going.

Maybe you know it, maybe you don’t, but either way…

I can tell you that such context is objectively VERY bearish for the Dollar.

You know… monetary policy.

So…

In this specific hypothetical example let’s say the fundamental sentiment is bearish for the Dollar and thus the USD is trending bearish.

Make sense so far?

Yes. You know what’s the dominant fundamental story driving the trend and now you can ask yourself the question…

Is the FED likely to keep on holding rates at very low levels while continuing the QE program, or are they about to change that context?

Or more generally…

Is this fundamental sentiment that is driving the trend right now likely going to continue being the dominant sentiment over the next couple of weeks or whatever time horizon you are looking at?

If the answer is YES, you have a trade to take in the macro direction.

Which in this specific example is? Dollar shorts.

While if instead the answer is NO and you think the sentiment is near its limit, then you WAIT for the right technical confirmation to fade it and trade the reversal.

That’s fundamentals for Forex in the simplest but most actionable and effective form.

Now…

That sounds cool in theory but the practice is so much different, isn’t it?

Yes, but no…

Here’s why.

THE POWER OF UNDERSTANDING THE FUNDAMENTAL STORY BEHIND A TREND:
 

See, this hypothetical scenario about the FED keeping rates very low and pumping liquidity wasn’t that hypothetical after all.

If you remember in mid to late 2020 that exact narrative was the dominant story across markets…

The FED was committed to keeping interest rates at very low levels and continuing its large QE program to provide ample liquidity to the economy:

Interest rate decision

So?

So the trend was bearish USD.

And Dollar shorts were the attractive trade across the board.

That’s to say that…

When the market is trending there is ALWAYS a fundamental reason for such trend to exist.

And that’s where fundamental analysis comes into play…

You immediately gain an advantage when you know the logic and rationale behind the narrative driving the trend.

Because you can then know fundamentally if that specific context should continue or not.

Like…

Is the FED likely to keep rates low? Is inflation in the UK likely to stay high compared to the EU? And so and so forth with all the various narratives and stories that you can think of.

And THIS is the whole point of Forex fundamental analysis.

Makes sense?

Understand the context, know the sentiment, and then ask yourself if it has reasons to continue or not.

And there you go, you have done your fundamental analysis to know the direction where a currency pair should move.

  • Understand the fundamental sentiment driving the market at any given moment in time
  • Ask yourself if that context should continue or not
  • Find an entry in that direction.

Ok, now let’s bring this one extra step further…

How many “steps further” did we bring this?

Three, four? I kinda lost count.

TRADE SMART:
 

Ok… you understand this concept, you understand that markets trend because of a specific macro story, you understand that fundamentals drive trends, you know that you should understand all that but…

But you still can’t wrap your head around how to do that yourself.

Alright.

What I’m about to tell you will sound super obvious but I’m telling you right here right now… that’s THE way.

Ready?

Leverage the experience of others.

Yes.

That’s kinda boring textbook advice, isn’t it? I know, it’s the kind of advice that you read in the average book about productivity or in the average Youtube video.

You probably heard that many times already. But listen…

However obvious it sounds…

That’s THE way.

But what do I even mean?

Literally… if you just can’t wrap your head around something, find the expert at it and listen to him.

Think about this…

You have amazing experts in monetary policy, technical analysis, fundamentals, and any other subject that you can think of.

You DON’T have to exhaust yourself by trying to do everything. USE the experts to your advantage to TRADE SMART.

But ok, wait a second…

Am I just flexing about the Private Network and how the members have the benefit of reading insights and following trades from other professional traders?

Well…

I am.

And that’s the point.

Because… that’s THE way to trade consistently.

Your mental energy in trading is an EXTREMELY important resource because it helps with your mental clarity which overall helps you make better decisions and thus better trades.

Logical.

But are you taking good care of that aspect of your trading?

I mean…

Do you have professional traders giving you actionable insights and exact trade ideas, which allows you to ease some of the trading pressure off of your shoulders?

That’s the point.

How to trade smart:
 

And by the way, I follow this exact advice myself.

I mean… there are some areas of fundamental analysis that I’m NOT an expert in.

Politics, I like politics, but I have NO idea how that stuff works from the inside.

So around elections and around important political events, I try to NOT make up random opinions on how they will influence the market.

Instead…

I reach out to the people I know are the top in the subject and get briefed on all I need to know.

Simple questions like…

Hey, what does this and this mean for such and such currency? What do you think of such and such? What’s your opinion on such and such and how should it impact the currency?

And so on, and so forth.

And that’s THE way to be an expert at everything you want.

Cool, I just gave you the best advice for your trading right HERE right NOW…

Use other professional traders to compensate for what you don’t know or understand.

In other words… work smart, not hard.

Such a clichè phrase isn’t it?

I agree… but it’s also so true.

keep these points in mind:
 

Ok, this article is probably getting a little too long but if you managed to reach this paragraph you are probably enjoying it… right? RIGHT?

Well… if you are, you can leave us your email down below to get updated if we publish something else like this.

With that said…

There are three things that I want you to take away from this article.

  • Fundamental analysis is about understanding the logic and narrative driving a trend and then analyzing whether that context should continue or not.
  • You don’t have to be an expert to trade fundamentals. You can just use already experienced traders to your advantage to listen to what they have to say.
  • Work smart, not hard. That’s how you effortlessly improving your trading efficiency.

Alright, that’s all there is to say…

Get your fundamentals straight by understanding what it’s really about, follow smart traders to make your trading easier, and trade consistently, period.

Other than that…

If you have managed to read this article all the way to this exact paragraph you are on the right track.

Really, you have the curiosity that is necessary to learn and move consistently in the right direction, good job.

Posted on

Crypto Global Macro Q2 2023

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CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q2 2023
THE FED IS SLOWLY BUT FIRMLY PIVOTING to a more dovish stance, from rate hike expectations to now rate cut expectations.

Sentiment changes fast, doesn’t it?

From “interest rates to infinity” to now “CUT interest rates, quick, QUICK”.

You know the drill…

The FED historically hikes interest rates until something breaks.

Well, looks like that thing, whatever it is, has cracked a little.

If you remember in the previous crypto update we talked about two things…

First, how the market could have capitulated lower to 10k before a macro bottom. And second, how a FED pivot would have initiated the mechanisms for the next bull run.

Definitely, there hasn’t been a capitulation to 10k which is an important aspect for the overall context and positionings…

But what really matters right now is that…

The FED is about to PIVOT.

Or actually…

The FED has pivoted.

The macro context:
 

The trajectory of monetary policy has turned from the aggressive tightening in 2022 to the early phases of easing in 2023.

To put it simply, the FED won’t hike interest rates much further and it is also quietly providing some stimulus again.

Here are a few fundamental notes with the BTC chart to illustrate this shift in context:

The FED is slowly transitioning from the tightening in 2022 with QT and all the aggressive rate hikes, to what instead will likely be monetary policy easing this year.

Right now it is evident that the FED is about to pause the tightening cycle in what happens to be a firm pivot in their monetary policy.

And that’s obviously a large shift in the macroeconomic context.

The projections from the latest dot plot published at the March FOMC meeting show just another tiny 25bps hike as consensus and then a pause of the tightening cycle:

Of course, the dot plot is just a theoretical projection the FED makes, it is NOT official forward guidance. But it still gives us a hint of what’s the sentiment and the consensus on what they are planning to do.

With that, it is evident that the FED is getting ready to pause hikes.

That pause in hikes will soon turn into rate cuts, but that’s another story…

So, Bullish or bearish?
 

I’m sure over the past couple of weeks you have read dozens of tweets and watched hours of content about crypto already.

So certainly you don’t want to consume the same boring piece of content, don’t you?

I know…

Hence I’m going to keep it sweet to the point.

What you need to know is that…

We are bullish BTC and we think the very first signs of the next bull market in crypto have printed.

New bull market? Like, all the way to new highs?

Wait, not too fast…

This is still NOT the perfect macro context to call for a full blown new bull market yet.

Interest rates are still too high and yes the balance sheet is expanding but it’s NOT the classic stimulative QE program.

I Mean, there’s still MORE needed to call a bull market.

But…

the fundamental context is short term BULLISH:
 

While we don’t think this is the bull run to new highs we can still be positioned for some upside, and we are.

At the moment we are long and bullish because in terms of upside potential we think 35k at least can be reached in the short term.

Then, with a longer term time horizon from around 35k or 40k maybe we can think about a move all the way back to the 20k. But for now that’s just a guess, we will evaluate that when the market is at that 35k.

With the Private Network members we have been buying some already from 23k around late January and we have been adding in early March when the FED pivot became a fact.

Basically, although it was a slightly different story, in early February the conditions started to turn much more favorable for crypto:

That was when a soft landing was still the dominant sentiment…

Obviously that context changed but it changed to an even MORE favorable environment with what was a loud pivot from the FED in early March.

But wait, we are not here to talk about what has happened already.

Let’s talk about what is next…

Market sentiment and positionings:
 

We usually like to get a sense of whether people are positioned for upside, downside, or neither…

We do that mostly to understand whether a trend is crowded or not.

And right now the sentiment still appears to be pretty balanced as everybody early at the start of the year was waiting for a touch of 10k to load up.

Of course, that touch at 10k never took place so there are plenty of funds still left on the sidelines that have NOT positioned yet.

That could trigger both further momentum above 30k but also be the trigger for the top towards 35k when the bullish sentiment gets too crowded:

Wait, I don’t mean to say that the market is definitely going to top out above 30k.

No…

But I’m definitely saying that the 35k to 40k zone is where we personally are going to turn much more careful on this trend.

Again, the fundamental context doesn’t suggest a major bull run, at least not yet. So we are NOT trying to aim for anything above 40k.

bullish short term, neutral longer term:
 

Definitely, there is A LOT that can change and that will definitely change in terms of fundamental context over the next 6 months or so with all the unknowns in the macro landscape.

With that in mind it is REALLY early to call for a full blown major long term bull run to anything higher than 40k.

But short term it’s a different story…

As of right now, you should want to be positioned unleveraged for further upside and eventially add on any large dip.

Large dips… yes.

Keep WELL into consideration that on the way to 35k, as usual, there will be some significant dips.

And I mean the kind of dips where you plan in advance to buy but then it dips so hard and so fast that you turn bearish and go short right before it shoots back up.

You know about those, don’t you?

Quite common in crypto land.

What to keep in mind…
 

So with everything being said right now what mostly matters is that interest rates have peaked. There is likely going to be just another small 25bps hike, then a pause, and then most likely rate cuts fairly soon.

With this context in mind, we are long and targeting a move to 35k on BTC.

But just a short term view…

Longer term there are way too many variables that can produce many different scenarios so there is no need, nor reason, to make any longer term projection.

In the next update we might have a better long term picture, but for now, we are just positioned for what we think is a tiny bull market that will extend for a little further. You may want to leave us your email down below to get alerted when we publish the next update.