Performance Recap

BESOMEBODYFX

PRIVATE NETWORK PERFORMANCE

Trades
BESOMEBODYFX
PERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION
Alright, it’s time to recap the performance of the BeSomebodyFX Private Network inception to date.

Performance, so, let’s begin with mine…

You may not know, we are 2 traders in the Private Network, there is me doing medium term trades and Sean doing longer term trades.

Let’s begin with me:

I’m up around 79% since inception, with an average of 3% a month with a max drawdown of 6%.

The whole Private Network focuses on capital protection first, so first we make sure the account is well protected and safe and then we watch at the profits.

With a 6% drawdown, I’m pretty satisfied with the results.

But let’s see some in-depth stats for the account:

Average win of about 160 pips, and average loss of about 130 pips, with total pips gained 6124, in total a win rate of about 51%. It’s nothing special but enough to have consistent stable profits while protecting the capital.

And now let’s see Sean’s data:

As you can see Sean outperformed me so far and he has a much better profit to drawdown ratio.

And not only that, his stats are much better overall:

Average win of about 1150 pips and loss of 263 pips, win rate is ONLY 43%, which is the true representation of the power of risk reward, letting the profits run and cutting losses quickly.

But it’s not everything.
 

Because in 2020 Sean has brought some focus on stocks because of the many opportunities created by the COVID volatility.

And so here is his performance in stocks as well:

I can just congratulate to him and be proud and happy that he is part of the team.

He truly is a gem and his trading style is fantastic.

Sean shares his reports every sunday, then he shares the details of his pending orders to set when the market opens and that’s it, done for the week.

After that, the trades are not touched during the week, literally, the pending orders are set at the beginning of the week with the various details (stop loss and take profit) and that’s it, he is done for the whole week.

That is what trading is all about in my opinion, the ability to make decent profit without much effort.

The realwork smart, not hard.

I’m different from him, I’m a market junky…

Hence I love to monitor markets day in and day out, and I definitely envy his ability to just set and forget trades for the whole week and actually outperform me.

Anyway, you can check his live up to date performance anytime here on this link:

Sean’s page.

Alright, let’s get back to the Private Network performance.
 

We have to mention the crypto portfolio as well, and I am proud to say that the portfolio is up about 200% since inception.

There is a pickle here tho, we buy and sell crypto unleveraged on various exchanges, which means I can’t show you any proven track record the same way we did above.

But I like to be transparent and show something real and practical rather than just fancy words. 

Therefore given that we don’t have the stats of the crypto portfolio, since the exchanges can’t be connected to myfxbook, I thought why not share the analysis that contributed the most to the performance of the portfolio:

https://mailchi.mp/2d0f830d64a4/the-next-crypto-bull-run-its-around-the-cornerr

We like to send email notes like this one above to the Private Network members.

The email notes are sent to explain in every detail our thoughts behind our core trades, and here above you can see the BTC one we sent in August 2020.

Following that we went long BTC at 11k, of course like every trade we take, the entry was shared in real time on the private Telegram channel.

The last performance worth noting:

We have one last thing to share, which in 2020 outperformed both me and Sean combined 😉

It’s the smart money index tool on the besomebodyfxterminal.com

Yes, a small strategy we put together that is semi automated that shows when it’s safe to buy the S&P500 dips after a deep correction…

I don’t want to bore you with all the technicalities so if you want to check how it’s built and the whole performance, here is the link:

https://besomebodyfxterminal.com/how-to-use-the-smart-money-index/

To conclude:

We have mentioned everything, this is how the Private Network is doing since inception.

But I want to take a moment to puntualize that the Private Network is MUCH more than just signals.

Because we share all our thought process to come up with a trade, and we share all our exclusive market researches.

Any decent trader can easily outperform us just by following our email notes and insights shared in the private Telegram channel and eventually even get better entries than the ones we share.

And not only that, I’m a very conservative trader so I risk even less than 1% a trade. 

In other words the performance you see in my account is for the performance of a very risk averse trader. And for instance, a more risk tolerant one could easily increase the performance by taking 2% of risk per trade, or 3% and so on.

I hope this kinda makes sense for everybody, the more you risk the higher the reward but the higher the risk as well.

As I was saying the Private Network is much more than just signals but we would be here hours if I wanted to list all the benefits of the Network so I guess I will just leave it to the reviews:

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

 

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

Building the case for some temporary Dollar strength

BESOMEBODYFX

USD STRENGTH NEXT?

Trades
BESOMEBODYFX
BUILDING THE CASE FOR SOME TEMPORARY DOLLAR STRENGTH
I KNOW THE MAJORITY IS DOLLAR BULLISH SO THIS POST WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY OF YOU…

After we have been Dollar bears for months it’s now time to gradually shift bias heading into the elections, BUT… Only temporarely.

Let me show you what we see:

It all starts with the FOMC meeting last week. 

The FED there has not given us Dollar bears anything to get excited about, the only thing that right now in the very short term could further weaken the Dollar is more QE but no signs of that at the moment, the FED story is stale and their balance sheet has not grown since June:

As we can see from the chart above the ECB balance sheet is still growing while the FED one has been stalled since June.
 

Also, we are probably right at the front edge of where traders (and risk managers) start to worry about the US election.

And this is beginning to be very clear looking at the CFTC data:

We can see that asset managers and speculators are slowly beginning to take profit on Dollar shorts heading into the elections and this trend is likely to continue the closer the election day gets.
 

There is a remarkable tendency for fear to build and volume to rise about 4 to 6 weeks before events, even events that have been on the calendar for years like an election day.
 

But let’s talk practical, here is how historically the Dollar performs heading into the elections:

So in the image above we can see the Dollar performance from Sept 23 to Nov 6 since the 2000s, and highlighted in yellow are the election years.
 

All years but one (2004), since the new millennium started have seen Dollar strength heading into the elections.
 

And…

This is an old chart (from early September) but EURUSD is still in the same range and the only thing that has changed here is that Trump has gained more approvals… so we get the picture 😉.

 

So here we begin to see how practically some Dollar relief begins to make sense:

  • Shorts are overextended and beginning to take profit
  • Usually heading into the elections the Dollar tends to appreciate (likely caused by market hedging)
  • The FED in the very short term doesn’t have much else to offer
  • FED balance sheet stalled and no more QE until further notice while ECB one still growing
  • An ECB that is worried about EURUSD above 1.20 and ready to jawbone it lower
  • Trump approvals rising and that’s positively correlated with the Dollar
 

EURUSD is of course the best expression of straight USD views these days, and EURUSD longs are still out there overstretched, so just some profit taking from asset managers ahead of the elections will push EURUSD lower. 

The most important level here I feel it’s the line in the sand put by ECB Lane’s when he said the famous words “EUR matters”, price never came back to that level, and if it does come back there and nothing has changed since this post then we will be there ready to short.

Another important level is the Q3 open price that has been supporting price for a while now and that has worked wonderfully for our longs recently, so a DAILY close below that will be interesting as well.

This is our idea generation process, which is the process where we do our researches to build a trade idea, we now move into the gatekeeping phase which is where we look at the charts to give us the best entry and to confirm our view.

This above is just a small part of what we do, we now begin the process of looking at retail activity, looking at the news flow and more to give us that extra confirmation that we need to deploy capital with confidence.

We send our confirmation and further researches to our Private Network members and as always, on top of that, we send them the exact details of our trades so that they can follow our performance.

Like this:

That’s how we do it in the Private Network, if you have any question you can hit the chat button on the bottom right or send us a message on telegram, we are ALWAYS available to answer your questions and to help you out.

Have a great day.

Third trading quiz results

BESOMEBODYFX

QUIZ RESULTS...

Trades
BESOMEBODYFX
Trading quiz results and answer explanations...
It’s sunday and it’s f1 race day so let’s make it quick 😉

The first 4 questions are the most boring ones but bear until the OIL questions, those will maybe teach you something…

Anyway let’s begin, and let’s be quick because as i said in a few hours there is the Mugello F1 race 🤪

Average inflation targeting…

It’s the hot topic at the moment…

So the majority answered correctly here but I see there has been some confusion between letting inflation above 2% or not accepting it above.

The not accepting it above would have been a very hawkish message from the FED but what’s happening now is the exact opposite, the FED is sending a clear dovish message saying that they will let inflation run ABOVE 2% for some time.

What does this mean?

Central banks controls inflation with monetary policy, they tighten monetary policy to reduce inflation and ease it to stimulate inflation, so the average inflation targeting means that they will accept inflation to run above target for a while before hiking interest rates (tightening monetary policy)

This question is related to the average inflation targeting, with that they will let inflation run “HOT” which of course means they will let inflation rise above their targets.

This above is a textbook question…

There is one asset par excellence that is known as the “hedge against inflation”, that of course is GOLD, so if inflation is expected to run hot GOLD & SILVER are the asset to own.

And to be precise, there are many other assets that do well in an inflationary period but definitely not the Dollar.

I hope this above doesn’t need explanations…

Supply and demand controls Oil prices, but i wonder how many answered it thinking about the supply and demand zones on the charts…

Here we are NOT talking about the supply and demand taught on Youtube or in your favorite guru overpriced technical analysis course, here we are talking about the real supply and demand, meaning exports, imports, airlines demand, countries demand, countries production and so on…

What people call supply and demand on the chart are simple zones of buying and selling interest, useful sometimes yes, but not what supply and demand is.

And here indeed we go deeper on what happens when demand for an asset changes and unsurprisingly of course, if demand is decreasing and supply doesn’t decrease along with the demand then prices fall.

And let me show you a real and very recent example:

So we talked about the demand but what happens if the supply is changed, well if you reduce the supply of an asset and the demand is unchanged then there is less available in the market then price increases.

This is truly the basics of supply and demand and indeed fortunately most of you are getting it right, good job 😉

Here is my favorite one, and i’m very happy to see that many of you get these concepts pretty well.

So what happens if supply is cut but demand has slowed down more than the supply cut?

Well the cut is not enough to compensate to the slowdown in demand, so the market begins to be flooded with OVERSUPPLY and prices need to decrease to be “attractive

We saw this in March, when OPEC was trying to find an agreement to cut supply and after long negotiations, they agreed to cut 10 Million barrels per day, but this was right before the global pandemic and during the Chinese lockdown where flights were already stopping and travels were slowing down, demand was so low that the OPEC cut was not enough to compensate with the oversupply, storages began to fill with unsold OIL barrels and that inevitably led OIL to levels unseen before:

This above is the true example of why CONTEXT is sooo important in trading.

A 10 Million barrel per day cut in a world where demand has slowed by more than 29 Million barrel per day…

Some simple math of course brings us to a staggering oversupply of 19 Million barrel per day that didn’t know where to go and where to be stored.

A bit of confusion here guys…

This is something that we have been closely tracking in the Private Network for the past 5 months.

The central bank looking to go negative rates right now is the RBNZ.

But hey, this doesn’t mean that you can go outhere and short the NZD everywhere, remember the word CONTEXT, the right pair to buy here begins with an A and ends with a D 😉

Oh and by the way, the ECB has negative rates since June 2014… Trollface | Know Your Meme Where did those 14 votes come from?

So what happens when one central bank is more dovish then another?

We here we are looking at a monetary policy divergence, where central bank X is dovish while central bank Y is neutral, this inevitably leads to the depreciation of central bank X currency against central bank Y currency, so the correct answer is indeed “look to buy”.

This is exactly what’s happening with the pair that begins with A and ends with D 😉

This is an interesting one, people are a little confused on what “currency intervention” means.

And we have been talking recently about it with the ECB meeting where the market was scared about a possible ECB intervention…

But then, what “intervention” means?

When a central bank intervenes in the market it’s to devaluate their currency, a strong domestic currency is not in the interest of central banks so when they intervene is to stop their currency from appreciating too much as that would put pressure on exports and inflation.

And that is it…

It definitely was the easiest quiz we have ever prepared and you can see it from the % of correct answers.

I hope you enjoyed it and found this educational, If you want to delve deeper in our trading style, check the BeSomebodyFX Private Networkyou will have professional macro traders telling you  exactly what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, so that you are increasing the probability of being successful and so that you can learn along the way.

Have a good Sunday and a good week.

And enjoy the race for all the F1 fans out there like me, Mugello what a great track.

A little tip to drastically improve your trading

BESOMEBODYFX

JUST ONE RULE...

Trades
BESOMEBODYFX
ONE SIMPLE TIP TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING NOW...
SOUNDS TOO GOOD?

It is too good, in some cases, but let me get straight to the point…

I’m in a good mood this weekend (F1 race weekend) so you know when i’m in a good mood i like to share stuff for you guys…

The whole point of this article is retail emotions…

The point here is that the crowd is impulsive and trades emotionally…

They get irritated easily so when a trade is in drawdown they take it personally, and sometimes their irritation will even make them switch position for no reason…

Don’t lie, you are guilty of that aren’t you?

And knowing this can give us an advantage in our trading.

Really?

Yes, and let me explain…

So for instance, the average Joe is seeing price breaking out of major resistance, he is telling himself “I can’t miss this buy, this is going to flyyyy” he buys at market price right at the break of the resistance, and you guessed it, right when he buys price starts to squeeze him out of the trade, it keeps squeezing and squeezing and Joe is telling himself “ah this was a false break now it’s time to sell let me reverse my position“…

You guessed it, when he reverses his position the market continues in the originally intended position, so Joe (sorry Joe) turned what was a good idea, so the long position, into two losers against what could have been 1 winner…

Let’s see exactly what i mean…

As you can see in the image above we have an uptrend where if we look at the retail sentiment I’m sure we see retails selling because they are always trying to pick the top in a trending market, so let’s suppose for the sake of the example that retails are selling this market.

We get a small bearish move that attracts further bears to step in and set their stop losses above the high.

Here comes the fun part because as you can see in the image above price comes close to their stop loss but it doesn’t hit it.

Why?

Because it wants to build more liquidity above, it wants to induce more sellers that will now jump in thinking of this as a double top or strong proven resistance.

So in the image above price finally hits the liquidity level, now we know there are either breakout buyers waiting to buy that break or the same retails that were short now frustrated and emotionally irritated reverse their position and buy the breakout giving themselves all the excuses in the world “this is going to fly now” “there is huge momentum to the upside” and so on…

The best part…

So now the market here is causing real pain (which is what it likes to do) because it’s now squeezing the late breakout buyers and inducing all kinds of self destructive thoughts for who was short and got stopped earlier “why i didn’t have my stop loss a few pips higher?” “why are they targeting my stop losses?” “should i add more when my stop loss gets hit?“, while the late breakout buyers are gradually all closing their positions in pain and probably reversing trade thinking it was a false break while all the previous seller and now getting back in (likely increasing position size as well… Human nature…) thinking the real bearish move is now about to happen after that “stop hunt

The image above is self explanatory, this is by far one of the most useful psychological pattern in the markets that helps you first in not getting trapped, second in recognizing that this is indeed happening and to not fall trap and finally in exploiting this to your favour so that you can get the best entry after a breakout instead of FOMOing in the market.

And sure there will be the times the market breaks the resistance and just flies away with big momentum but if you want to have a healthy and long trading career then chasing that momentum won’t give you that, professional traders let the market come to them, they never chase it.

Quick and useful tip that can help your trading career…

We are writing a full “research paper” on all this stuff where various patterns similar to this will be listed with details, explanations, studies and so on, we are just a few pages in so it’s going to take some time to organize everything…

Of course it’s going to be available only to our Private Network members 😉

The example above is the representation of the perfect pattern but the real market is different, you will get perfect setups here and there but most of the time you will get various degrees of the same thing with slight variations, which is why it’s important to metabolize the core concept of liquidity and retail emotions in the market and not the pattern itself, the pattern is simply a representation of what’s happening in the retail mind.

So for the time being make sure you study the pattern shared above and next time you want to buy or sell a breakout right away think twice because there are tons of retails doing the same.

If you want to delve deeper in our trading style, check the BeSomebodyFX Private Network, you will have professional macro traders telling you  exactly what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, so that you are increasing the probability of being successful and so that you can learn along the way.

We won’t accept any new member when the market opens and it’s limited to 5 new members, (3 already booked) so 2 seats left, the next enrolling will be only in September, or October, or next year? Trollface | Know Your Meme

Join Now

If you have any question hit the chat button on the bottom right or send me a message on Telegram and i get your questions answered quickly.

History and how it can help us in our trading

BESOMEBODYFX

HISTORY AND TRADING?

Trades
besomebodyfx
HOW HISTORY CAN HELP US IN OUR TRADING?
Some of you may find this post very boring and some of you will find it extremely valuable and informative, so i’m writing this for all the market nerds like myself that love this stuff, but if you aren’t one then give it a read anyway.

What I want to talk about is how history can help us in our trading and how we can study it to help us approach future similar events in the right way.

It may be a little boring at first but hold on until the end because there are a few gold nuggets for your trading and there is a great opportunity that you can capitalize in the near future 😉

 

So let’s get started…

First the “boring” part for most of the traders that are reading this.

In the US the biggest panic narrative was of course in 1929 and i’m sure you all studied it in school right?… Right?

Well, it was the 1929 market crash that gave us the notion of indeed the word “crash”, before that the phrase “boom and crash” was used only in relation to something else like the sound of thunder or whatever was appropriate in the historical period.

But the ‘29 crash completely changed the human perspective and the main significance of the word “crash” which from then on it was related mainly to the stock market.

And of course we all know this came back various times since then, we have 2001 and 2008 as the most recent examples, not to mention 2020 crash.

 

Yes but then what’s the point?

These narratives that happened years and even almost a century ago can be useful to read current events…

If we want to have a better understanding of what’s happening in a specific period of time we are living, then we always need to recognize that we are often experiencing a slight mutation of the most similar historical event.

 

Did I lose you already? 

Well speaking about crashes, what i’m trying to say is that the human mind can be very pessimistic and sadic in these periods because most people want to see the world burn, they want to see the end of “world order”, the end of the markets as well all know it and so on…

I find very interesting how aggressively most people are extrapolating the current situation (COVID19) out into the forever future.

It’s similar to how people were talking about the market in 2008 and in 2001.

The consensus was: “The market is toast.” “Nobody will want to invest in stocks again”.

Since then, well we all know how well the US stock market performed.

Pessimistic biases tend to be magnified aggressively after a salient, scary thing like COVID19 happens.

We tend to project the current circumstances out forever when in real life the world often reverts or goes off in a completely different direction more quickly than one could possibly imagine when still living in the middle of the scary thing.

The markets are forward looking by at least 6 months so they can and they will “price in” the recovery much earlier than what everybody would expect.

And we are not hypothesizing here, the world has encountered many many many many apocalyptic events that the majority thought would have signed the end of capital markets, but nope so far the world hasn’t ended, it always gets back up, over and over again, probably we have a lot to learn from it.

And history teaches us this, humans tend to exaggerate the conclusions and while the majority is pessimistic and believes the world will end after a certain event a few smart investors load up positions anticipating the world getting back on its feet and the market recovering like it always did for the past century at least.

We all want to be the next Michael Burry (who?) and bet on the market collapse but for every 1 investor that capitalized on a crash there are 10 that created wealth from buying cheap, who has the advantage here?

I’m not saying you to buy every dip but i’m saying you that its wise to do what worked in the past and so far buying the dips has worked very well, you just need to build a tool that helps you doing that and helps you time well the entries and we personally did it very well, you can check it here.

 

But how do you do that?

Well I can’t give you the all the sauce here but I can point you in the right direction, and a good start is studying leading indicators (not the indicators you are thinking of… leading indicators are economic indicators that lead the lagging indicators) like PMIs (especially the ISM in the US), Building Permits and Consumer Confidence (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in the US)

I can guarantee you that it’s not hard and if you squeeze your brain a little you will find the answer on how to buy the dips after a crash in those three indicators.

 

And my favorite, Heavy Truck Sales:

The grey shaded parts are US recessions, do you see what i’m seeing?

Well i hope you do, here is a tweet we sent a while ago (pre COVID crash)

The stock market moves on GDP expectations for the next 6 to 12 months, so learn to predict GDP (lagging indicator) by studying leading indicators and you will have a great advantage in long term investing, i have said enough 😉

 

 

What else?

This is the most straight forward and simple example i can do relative to the US stock market performance but by studying historical events and the impact they had on the economy (keeping a close eye on leading indicators) we can be better prepared for what the future might throw at us in every sector, stocks, currencies, commodities and so on.

And it doesn’t stop here because this concept doesn’t apply only to historical events, we are talking about chart patterns as well…

Always ask yourself if “A” is happening what usually follows? as in what happened after “A” in the past year or decade depending on your timeframe?

You may find out that you have a solid pattern to trade on, and sometimes it may even go against everything you have been taught by the instagram and youtube furus out there. 

 

 

Here is a recent example that we are looking to trade on.

This is COST, and you will find in this chart that the first time the RSI goes overbought after being oversold price tends to rally in the following months, and yes this is the bonus for all the curious readers that made it until here you can buy COST hereand hold for a few months until satisfied with the profit.

Is this just random?

Of course it is, everything is random but there can be order in randomness as well, what we rely on, in this case, is in the concept of “When A happened then B followed X% of the times in the past X years”, there isn’t, of course, a guarantee that B will happen but what we have a few odds in our favor if it worked in the past.

So as you can see this concept of studying history and how a certain event impacted price on the chart can be applied in both real historical events and technical formations on the charts as well.

On the technical side sometimes you may just be trading the right pattern but in the wrong asset, let’s take a classic bearish/bullish flag pattern for instance.

It’s a great pattern that can be extremely profitable if put into context, so sometimes you just need to do some chart work and see how many times in this specific currency pair, commodity or stock a bull flag worked well? you may scroll on your chart and see that 8 flags out of 10 didn’t work in that asset, so would you still trade it?

Of course not, history is proving you that in that specific asset that specific pattern doesn’t work or at least recently didn’t work well.

At the same time you may find that price after breaking the flag usually spikes on the opposite side to stop hunt all the breakout traders before following in the intended direction, so what would you do in this case? would you still buy right at the breakout or would you buy the stop hunt to get the best entry price possible?

And on the opposite is true as well, you may find out in a specific asset that 8 times out of 10 when price broke a flag it never came back to retest the broken flag, so when the next flag breaks will you look to trade the retest or will you enter a position right at the break?

Exactly a few minutes ago while i was writing this article a friend of mine was looking to buy a specific stock at the NY open, the stock gapped up and he asked me “what do i do now?” “do i buy here or wait for the gap to fill?”

The answer is easy, there is no fixed rule, the rule will change for every asset, just look at some chart history and see at least in the past 10 gaps how many times price filled it and how many times it just run away?

It filled the gap 7 times out of 10? good then wait for the gap to fill before buying…

Price usually never fills the gap and just runs away leaving it open? good then don’t wait for the gap to fill…

 

 

Tons of examples can be made here, it’s all about getting used in looking at how the chart reacted when event “X” happened which could be the FED going 0% interest rates, a global pandemic, RSI going overbought, a technical breakout of a flag or resistance and so on… You may find very interesting results.

I hope this little article was informative, have a great day and stay safe out there.

 

 

Cheers,

Jay from the BeSomebodyFX Team

SILVER opportunity coming up…

BESOMEBODYFX

SILVER OPPORTUNITY

Trades
besomebodyfx
Possible long on silver coming up this week
It’s race day!

Today the F1 resumes finally after a long long long break, so every Formula 1 fan is excited now and i feel generous today so i decided to share with you an email that we sent an hour ago to all the Private Network members…

It’s not just a random boring email don’t worry…

It illustrates a great opportunity that is coming up this week in SILVER.

Enjoy:

By the way the historical edge that we mention for Natural Gas  at the beginning of the email was a short from June 16 and still ongoing, you can check how that worked in the chart by yourself 😉

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, so don’t forget to always use money management when opening a position, there is no certainty and there is no easy money, keep it professional and you will be rewared.

We personally use a research driven approach for our trades and we use technical analysis only to time our entries, if you want to learn more on how we work and add an edge to your trading with our daily insights while at the same time following our trades with exact entries and exits, then check out the Private Network.

Enjoy the race if you are an F1 fan too, and if you are not then enjoy your Sunday, see you during the week in the public Telegram channel or even better in the Private one if you decide to join us before the open (the link to join will close right before the market open).

https://besomebodyfx.com/besomebodyfx-network/

Second trading quiz results

BESOMEBODYFX

TRADING QUIZ RESULTS

Trades
besomebodyfx
quiz results and explanations
You are here to know the correct answers to the quiz right?

Cool, let’s start…

The first question was about market pricing

So in a hypothetical event (RBA rate decision) the market heads into the rate decision expecting a 100bps rate cut which is of course a negative for the Australian Dollar (in simple, cuts are negative while hikes are positive for a currency).

BUT the market is more complex and the RBA did cut rates BUT only a small 25bps cut, which would have been a negative if only the market wasn’t pricing a 100bps cut, so in simple the RBA underdelivered in this case hence it was a HUGE relief for the Australian Dollar which would have rallied on the back of it, so the correct answer here is “it pumps.

The concept of what’s priced in and what not is extremely important in trading, why?

Take for instance the recent huge unemployment numbers that we are seeing, you may look at the data release and say “woahhh 16% UnemPloyMent rate in the US that’s HUUUGEE the DOllAr is going to dUmP…”

But instead the Dollar it’s not moving, the data is release, it’s a crazy number but the market moves just a few pips, why? because it was EXPECTED and PRICED IN, so everybody already knew that the unemployment rate was going to be awful hence the marked already did its thing weeks in advance.

It’s always important to know what’s priced into the market and what not, makes sense?

This is pretty basic, anything that creates tensions in the middle east hence putting OIL production at risk is POSITIVE for OIL, and at the same time anything that creates tensions in the world is GOLD POSITIVE so the correct answer here is “they both pump“.

Should i even comment on this? ☝️

Next…

And this one made the most kills, 10Y T Notes and GOLD are extremely correlated, if one pumps the other does too and if for some reason one is moving while the other isn’t then it’s time to squeeze your brain and find the reason to understand which one is lagging who, because you may have a great trading opportunity.

So the correct answer here is “They are positively correlated” so if T Notes pump then GOLD pumps too.

And for the smart lads that thought two different assets don’t affect each other, it’s time to learn that currencies and some commodities are all interconnected with the bond market.

I wonder if the traders that answered down ever read one of our public analysis?

It’s literally almost a cornerstone concept of our analysis…

A contrarian approach to retails…

If retails are short the path of least resistance is UP…

Why? because most of the time you are trying to pick tops and bottoms in trending markets genious!

This could be a heated subject but the consensus is clear, if Biden wins the elections the stock market should react negatively at least in the short term…

The thinking behind this is that if a Democrat wins the White House, the party is virtually certain to win both houses of Congress due to next year’s Senate math, and, in turn, that could likely result in the unwinding of fiscal and regulatory policies that contributed to the current economic expansion. 

And yes hate it or love him Trump is actually GOOD for the stock market:

This of course before the COVID19 hit the world economy, but that’s what we call an exogenous (something that has an external cause or origin) black swan event,  and at this rate i wouldn’t even be surprised if we get back to ATH before November’s elections…

Next…

The correct answer here is “Easing means cutting interest rates and tightening means hiking interest rates

This one looks more like confusion between the term hawkish and dovish…

Most of you agree that at least they should CUT rates which is correct, in this hypothetical scenario the RBA sets an acceptable level for the Unemployment rate and if it goes above that they are prepared to act (prepared to act means prepared to cut rates in this case), unemployment goes wayyy above their level and the next logical move (as specified by the RBA itself with the “prepared to act”) is to indeed CUT rates or at least send a DOVISH message.

Why Dovish message and not hawkish one?

Don’t forget an hawkish central bank is a bank looking to hike rates and optimist about future outlook, while a dovish central bank is a bank looking to cut rates and with a negative outlook on their economy, so correct answer is “CUT or at least send DOVISH message”.

MARIO DRAGHI! mario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-previewmario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-preview

MARIO DRAGHI! mario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-previewmario-draghi-celebrity-mask-removebg-preview

I’m Draghi’s fan did you notice?

For your interest, this is Jared Leto:

Yeah definitely not a central banker…

Now last question:

This question looks taken straight out of a school test…

And i will let Google answer this one:

Yes the correct answer is a “weak currency“, and the RBNZ is a great example of this, it’s in their mandate to keep the NZD relatively weak to help their exports hence support the economy.

 

And that’s it…

We had only 2 traders that scored 100 on the quiz, the first one won a free month in the Private Network so congratz, while the second can whistle for it ‘cos he got too late… 

The Most Important Skill In Trading

BESOMEBODYFX

BEST TRADING SKILL?

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besomebodyfx
WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TRADING SKILL?
It’s race day!

Traders develop daily rather than in a day, a good trader understands that it takes time to be a good trader, that it’s not something you do or become quickly, it’s not something that you become after you read one book or you buy one course…

Often people come to me after 1 week of being in the private network and they say “I’m so excited, I see everything clearly now, I understand everything”

Nono… Today you are BEGINNING to understand but you are not going to understand the markets just in a week or after you took 2 profitable trades, it takes time, it’s a process…

So as a beginner trader you need to understand that today you are only beginning the journey, what you also need to understand is that it’s a process so it will take time to develop great trader skills

And so the most important skill of a successful trader is discipline:

Read carefully, discipline is much more important than vision, when people think of trading they think of vision, they say “here is what I want” and they see their accounts and plan the amount of money they want to make and the timeframe to reach that and so on…

That’s vision.

Now, vision can be important don’t get me wrong, vision is the fuel for your will but discipline is much more important than vision because discipline is behavior, discipline isn’t what we see (that’s vision), discipline is what we do… 

And what we do and how we do it determines where we are going and what our account is going to accomplish.

Now, discipline determines how well you succeed in trading…

let me explain…

If you put your level of discipline on a scale from 1 to 10 so let’s say for instance you are a 5, you are an average level of discipline, well now you need to put your account performance in that same scale from 1 to 10 BUT here is what happens…

There is a law in trading that you can’t perform better than how much you are disciplined, so in simple if you are a level 5 discipline you can’t perform in your trading at a level 10 or at a level 8, your level of discipline will always cap your performance, this is true for everybody in the long term.

Now, of course you can be undisciplined get lucky and turn 100$ into 1000$ in a week but I can tell you that it’s not sustainable and sooner than later you will search on google:

This rule applies to everybody, over the long term you can’t perform better than your discipline level.

Now here comes the magic, people come to me and ask me:

“How can I grow my trading performance?”

Well, very simple grow your discipline skills, so what that means is that the better we learn to be disciplined the more potential we have of performing better on our trading accounts

The great news that I want to share with you is that you can learn to be more disciplined but I can’t help you with that…

Being in a professional community of traders like the Private Network definitely can help you but you have to work on that by yourself in your daily life too, if you are not disciplined in your life that will reflect in your trading performance.

So if my discipline level on a scale from 1 to 10 is a 5 that means my trading performance is maximum a 5 and it cannot go any higher.

UNLESS…

Unless I increase my discipline level, and you can do that, in other words, is possible to take your discipline score to a 5 to a 7 or to a 9, you now have room for your trading performance to grow to an 8 or a 9, once you understand and accept that then things begin to be amazing, you start to see how your daily life behavior and your habits impact your trading, and trust me you don’t have power in controlling the markets but you have all the power in the world to control and change your daily habits.

And when you have a whole Network of professional macro fund managers telling you what they are doing with their own money each step of the way, then you are increasing the probability of being successful.

That is what the BeSomebodyFX Private Network offers you, with an emphasis on first protecting your wealth, and positioning your capital to profit.

What does the Network get you?

  • Access to insights & guidance from top tier traders
  • Access to our live trades, from long term to short term opportunities
  • Access to all our researches, info and insights
  • Access to a professional helpful community via private chat

…all for less than a daily cup of coffee

Now i can go ahead all day listing you the features and benefits of the Private Network but i will let our reviews speak for us…

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

I hope to welcome you in our Private Network soon, so you can start networking with our global member base.

Yes we just opened a few extra seats to join the Network…

This extra enrolment will close in 24h…

Should you have any questions about joining in the meantime, simply send us a message on Telegram @JayRally and i will get your questions answered.

Trading Quiz Results

BESOMEBODYFX

TRADING QUIZ RESULTS

Trades
besomebodyfx
quiz results and explanations
OK, INTERESTING, VERY INTERESTING RESULTS, IF YOU ARE HERE YOU WANT TO KNOW THE CORRECT ANSWERS RIGHT?

Well that would be $99.99

Joking 🤪

Don’t want to dwell too much today so let’s get straight to the results.

It’s relieving to know that at least 83% of you know who Mario Draghi is, i don’t even want to comment on the others, literally, you could have just googled it… 

Second question asked you to choose which one of the options was a commodity currency.

67% of you got it right.

What even is a commodity currency and why the AUD is labeled as such?

Google is the answer to all your problems…

So in simple why the AUD is considered a commodity currency?

Australia is a major exporter of GOLD and its economy is highly dependant on that, another example of this is the CAD which is another commodity currency because Canadian economy is highly dependant on OIL exports hence OIL prices, lower OIL prices = CAD negative, higher OIL prices = CAD positive

Next question, which one is an antipodean currency?

Antipowhat?

Antipodean is just a technical label for AUD and NZD

34% of you learned a new word today, good job, don’t forget it because it’s a widely used term in the professional trading world.

Let get to the next question:

75% of you got it right thanks, this is literally the cornerstone and extremely basic concept of fundamentals trading, knowing what an hawkish central bank is and what a dovish central bank is.

You can stick to selling oversold and buying overbought zones in your stochastic if you don’t want to study the very basics of fundamentals…

A central bank is termed hawkish when it raises interest rates and dovish when it cuts interest rates.

Next…

Here we are talking about short term reaction, and the correct answer is of course “they dump” and all the traders with a brain that traded in 2019 should know very well this, if Trump announces tariffs against China then the risk sentiment of the market gets hit hard and investors start to take out money from stocks to put in into safe havens, and don’t forget about algos, the short term reaction it’s all algo trading, they read the headline in milliseconds and start to trade based on the headline sentiment.

So when you see a dump or pump based on a news headline then that move is 99% algo scalping the headline trying to get ahead of everybody else for a few pips of profit, literally it’s algos trying to get ahead of another algo to buy ahead of it to then sell it back to the algo coming late to the party… 

Yes high frequency trading it’s that fucked up…

Next…

And this confused more traders tho, again, the traders that went through 2019 trade war should well know the logic behind this, Australia is a major trade partner with China, if China is hit with tariffs and their economy slows down then Australia is inevitably hit as well which would force the RBA to step in and lower interest rates hence making the AUD less attractive hence less demand hence AUD weaker…

“Arghhh  this trading thing is much more complex than I thought…”

Safe havens… You MUST know what they are, it’s absolutely crucial for your trading success, you must understand it and understand the different shades of market sentiment (risk off/on)

But let’s get to the correct answer here,  the JPY and the CHF are he safe havens in this list.

And now the cherry on the cake…

Finally we come to the tricky evil question, what even is a leading indicator you may ask, something that everybody admires as a leader?

No…

A leading indicator is an economic indicator that anticipates the lagging indicators, so an indicator from which you can anticipate future growth of a country.

And here all the traders that answered Stochastic are facepalming themselves… 

Surely your stochastic doesn’t lead future economic growth right?

It actually doesn’t even lead price on your chart, does it?

So the 23% that answered Stochastic, please reflect on your priorities in your trading analysis… 

The correct answer here are PMIs.

PMIs lead changes in all the lagging indicators such GDP, Employment, CPI and many others, understanding what leading indicators are and what lagging indicators are is extremely important.

The categories are 3:

  • Leading (anticipate the future)
  • Coincident (just show what’s happening at the moment)
  • Lagging (show what already happened)

It’s a broad subject to explain so if you are interested in learning more about it then google is your friend again 😉

And here we get back to monetary policy basic concepts, what happens to a currency when a central bank shifts from once stance to the other?

And the correct answer is of course “it appreciates against other currencies

If a central bank shifts from a dovish to an hawkish stance then it means they are now looking to hike interest rates in the future and that’s positive for the domestic currency, the opposite would be true as well of course.

And for the GOLD lovers yes the correct answer is “To the moon!

why?

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium provide a safe haven against inflation.  When a central bank pumps money into the system, by definition, they are attempting to induce more inflation, precious metals investors view these actions as inflationary and move quickly their savings or investments into these safe haven assets scared about the devaluing of their domestic currency.

So in simple with negative rates and QE a central bank inevitably devalues the domestic currency and increases inflation and would you keep your money into something that is devaluing?

No, hence attractiveness for GOLD increases.

 

 

And that’s all, hope you enjoyed taking the quiz and you learned something, and yes you haven’t even scraped the surface of fundamental analysis…

More quizzes to come in the future, this time harder ones, yes this one was easy…