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Crypto Global Macro Q2 2025

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BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q2 2025
MIXED STUFF…

If you follow our quarterly updates on crypto you will remember the chart below from the previous macro update.

This is the chart that Bitcoin bulls conveniently ignore. Just beware of it.

- BeSomebodyFX

Read on Substack

Ok.

Now what?

Now here’s how that same overlay (Bitcoin with global liquidity) is looking:

Kinda bullish?

Yes.

But hold on, not too fast!

We are NOT super bullish here.

We are just a tiny bit bullish while also FULLY aware that there are A LOT of downside risks building up that could weigh on price for a while.

What are those risks?

The risk variables ahead:

Namely two…

Trump’s tariff.

And inflation (again).

And both are sort of related there.

Inflation is at risk of bumping higher again because of Trump’s tariffs, and that’s bearish for risk assets.

And Trump’s tariff also threaten global growth, potentially a short term quick recession, and that’s also bearish risk assets.

And as you know (or as you should know) Bitcoin is a risk asset!

So it does well in risk on, and it doesn’t in risk off.

Makes sense?

If it doesn’t, watch this video that explains what risk sentiment is all about.

With that in mind…

Here’s what Goldmans institutional investors are expecting:

As you can see, lower growth, higher inflation.

Stagflation?

Kinda, I mean stagflation is when inflation is A LOT higher and growth A LOT lower, and that’s NOT the case here.

But nonetheless, the direction of travel moves toward stagflation, and that’s a risk.

And that’s also why GOLD (the safe havens of safe havens in a stagflationary enviroinment) is doing wonders:

But I’m sure you noticed 😉

WITH THAT SAID…

The moral of the story here is that we don’t have a clear bias at the moment.

We are slightly bullish (because of global liquidity) but things can change at any minute with Trump.

That’s how it is right now.

Be flexible.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Crypto Global Macro Q1 2025

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BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q1 2025
Beware of a pullback…

Alright.

If you follow these crypto updates regularly you will know we were bullish in the previous macro update at the start of October.

That was September 25.

Perfect!

We got the Trump pump, and we took profit with the Private Network at 91k.

Alright, now what?

Now things are calling for a pullback.

A deep one.

This is the chart that Bitcoin bulls conveniently ignore. Just beware of it.

- BeSomebodyFX

Read on Substack

Global liquidity is not looking great.

And… there’s another risk in the driving seat for the macro sentiment right now.

Basically…

Heading into the latest FOMC rate decision (December 18) consensus was fully expecting a simple 25bps rate cut, three rate cuts projected for this year, and a mild reaction by the market. 

Nice!

Except that we got the 25bps cut but paired with a dissenter voting for rates to stay on hold (this is a REALLY rare occurrence) and rate projection showing a median consensus for ONLY two cuts next year.

That’s when things “topped” and got volatile.

But let’s dig a bit deeper into this.

Because this latest FED hawkish pivot does NOT say necessarily that this was the top or that the market is going straight down from here.

No, at least not yet!

Let me explain…

The key macro variable:

The matter is conditional, meaning…

If inflation doesn’t further progress towards the 2% target, let’s say two consecutive months of “too high” CPI printings then the FED will have to forget about rate cuts for a while.

At that point yes!

Things will get REALLY bearish.

I’m talking around 40% drop.

Back near 60k at least.

But hold on a second…

That’s only ONE scenario.

The other scenario is the disinflationary process continues smoothly, and the FED turns back into “easing” mode quickly.

That would allow the bull market to resume.

Ok.

I just told you BTC will either go up or go down.

Great.

Thank you for reading this!

I’m kidding 😉

Now let’s get useful…

What’s the most likely scenario of the two?

Well, personally I think the “further disinflation” scenario.

Why?

First of all because of the latest PCE print showed.

That already gave markets a bit of hope that the FED won’t need to be as hawkish as they projected.

On top of that…

Goldmans, which is usually fairly accurate with their inflation models, is pointing at further disinflation ahead.

By March the core PCE reading should be near 2.5%.

Enough for the FED to resume cutting by 25bps there.

And third…

The FED timing recently hasn’t been impeccable.

They cut 50bps in September right before three consecutive months of sticky inflation prints.

I mean, it wouldn’t be surprising if they pivoted hawkish right before the resumption of the disinflationary trend. Right?

So there you go:

Given all this, the bullish scenario is more likely than the bearish one.

But it’s too early to say confidently enough.

We need to see at least the next CPI print to get a better read.

So we are flat on crypto after having taken profit from our longs pre US election (from 64.5k) at 91k.

with that said…

Now we wait!

We wait to see how the macro scenario unfolds by looking at the CPI, PCE, and other inflation metrics, over the next two months.

Ready to either keep staying on hold if inflation proves sticky.

Or buy again for the next macro leg higher if disinflation continues.

Ready to either keep staying on hold if inflation proves sticky.

Or buy again for the next macro leg higher if disinflation continues.

This is fundamental analysis.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Websites To Keep Track Of Forex Fundamentals

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BESOMEBODYFX

WEBSITES FOR FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

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WHAT WEBSITES TO USE TO KEEP TRACK OF FOREX FUNDAMENTALS?
So, you’ve mastered candlestick charts, and price action make sense, but now…

Now you are starting to understand… even the savviest trader, yes, even you, needs to be on top of Forex fundamentals, and so you need some websites to follow for that.

I mean, you know what I mean.

Miss that FOMC meeting and, well, you’re left wondering why the EURUSD just did a triple backflip on you.

So, what’s the play here?

How do you stay ahead of the curve in a market that is filled with important macro events?

Let’s talk websites for fundamentals.

The best websites to stay updated with market fundamentals:

You probably have a few bookmarked already (maybe you even follow us already) but anyway I’m going to walk you through three high quality platforms to get your fundamentals up to date.

Three sources to keep you loaded with the freshest and most important macro updates for the market.

With that said…

First of all, have you heard of BeSomebodyFX?

You might already know us, but if you don’t, let me show you where you can follow us to get high quality insights for your trading.

Where?

On our Substack:

BeSomebodyFX Substack homepage

There you get every week an indepth update on the most important fundamental event going on.

That can be crypto like in the example above.

Or maybe GOLD…

Article on the fundamentals for GOLD prices

An FOMC meeting:

Article on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision

And so on.

Anything that REALLY matters and that you need to be aware of.

Cool?

Alright, and here’s the best part…

We don’t just give you news, we provide strategic insights that help you understand how the fundamentals will play out in the markets.

And most of all, how you can trade it!

Whether it’s an interest rate shift with the Federal Reserve or inflation surges in the Europe, we deliver thoughtful, actionable content that keeps you ahead of the market.

So, on top of our Substack, you can follow us on our public Telegram channel too.

That’s where you can get trades ideas and updates like this:

NZDCAD swing trade idea

Useful, right?

Yes.

Especially when they unfold like this:

Trade take profit

Ok, enough said 😉

You can see we’re not just “another” fundamental website.

We deliver you the content that matters, when it matters, and in a way that you can take action on it.

Perfect! But I get it…

You need more “classic” type of sources to get quicker headlines and market updates.

So where can you go for it?

Where to get the best market headlines:

ForexLive.

ForexLive market headlines

I’ll be honest.

ForexLive has this uncanny ability to always be on top of all the major economic data, as if they’ve bugged every central bank around the globe.

Interest rates, inflation reports, or some speech by a minor deputy from the Bank of England hinting at the next move from the central bank?

They’ve got it.

And they’ve got it fast.

ForexLive update on the Bank of England comments

Useful, right?

And here’s where they shine…

It’s not just about speed.

Context is key.

ForexLive doesn’t just drop the raw headline and that’s all.

No, they help you make sense of it.

They give you the “why” behind the “what,” making sure you’re never just reacting blindly to the latest data release.

So their analysis is sharp, engaging, and most of all… useful.

Which, honestly, is what you need when trying to make sense of the market.

But ok.

We’ve got usefulness and context.

That’s great for your swing trades.

Now you want speed.

Where can you get really fast market headlines?

FinancialJuice.

FinancialJuice for quick market headlines

This website is all about real time market moving headlines, and they don’t mess around.

It’s a straightforward approach that feeds traders the raw data they need when they need it.

Think of it as a Twitter feed, but one that is tailored for market headlines, filtering all the useless noise around it.

And if you want to level it up even further and get the fastest market updates, then…

Their squawk is the way to go.

FinancialJuice Squawk feature for fast market updates

It’s an audio feed that will make you feel like a Wall Street insider.

Getting all the latest market developments as fast as it gets.

Why fundamental analysis matters:

The consistency in trading isn’t just about technical patterns.

Sure, you need that!

For instance, we combine technicals with fundamentals in our trading.

But you know…

Very often traders ignore and miss completely the macro picture.

And then they are left wondering why their technical setup on the chart got eaten up like it didn’t matter.

Price action illustration around fundamental events

Ever been there?

Yes.

So the websites for Forex fundamentals we’ve talked about:

BeSomebodyFX, ForexLive, and FinancialJuice.

All of these are powerful tools that let you stay one step ahead of the market, anticipate moves, and adjust your strategy in real time so that you can implement fundamental analysis in your trading efficiently.

At ForexLive you get a mix of fast market updates and also contextual definitions and explanation of what’s going on.

And at FinancialJuice you get raw and pure, and fast, market headlines.

And on top of everything…

Us at BeSomebodyFX we give you actionable trade ideas and macro updates that you can use to trade, the insightful, useful, and effective type of content to help you trade consistently.

That’s how to do it.

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Crypto Global Macro Q4 2024

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CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q4 2024
even more bULLISH IT IS. HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW…

The macro environment for risk assets is in a sweet spot.

The Fed is cutting rates into a pretty OK economy.

That’s bullish!

China is stimulating.

That’s bullish!

And infact, we are still long and bullish crypto as highlighted in the previous macro update.

Q4 is set to be quite bullish, I think.

Regardless of the election outcome.

I mean, sure… expect some volatility into the election.

But what matters most is that financial conditions are now easing and global liquidity as a result keeps going up:

Also China about a week ago has unveiled a massive stimulus program which will further spur global liquidity.

This is BULLISH for risk assets!

Sure, a recession can kick off at any moment.

But right now there’s NO recession and forward looking economic indicators are NOT flashing too red, yet.

We can’t trade a recession if there’s no recession.

Makes sense?

Yes, but hey…

If the data will suggest that, adapt accoridngly.

Be ready to hedge when (and if) necessary.

But in the meantime…

Long only.

Also…

The start of Q4 is the turnover from the bearish September seasonals (which didn’t do much this year) into bullish October:

And continuation in November and December…

With that said…

That’s the way to go right now.

We are long and bullish with the Private Network.

80k in Q4 is achievable.

Sounds about right 😉

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Beware Of Fakes

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BEWARE OF FAKES

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ONLY USE VERIFIED CONTACT DETAILS
LET’S BE REAL…

I know you probably are aware of the shadiness out there of people impersonating people and all that.

That’s nothing new, in every field, that’s always been going on.

But I feel some traders need to hear this anyway, so here it is…

BEWARE OF FAKES:

What do I mean?

I mean that on Telegram anyone can anonymously create a channel and call himself whatever he wants.

You can go on your Telegram right now and change your name to “Jeff Bezos” and start a channel named “Amazon“.

Does that make you Jeff Bezos?

No.

Does having a channel named “Amazon” make you the real official Amazon?

No!

That’s why there are websites.

They are the only place where you’ll find verified contact details and authentic information.

And the same is true for BeSomebodyFX.

If you encounter someone on Telegram named like us, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s us.

So how can you know exactly who’s real and who’s not?

Use OFFICAL websiteS:

On our homepage we have the link to our ONLY official public Telegram channel.

We DON’T have any other public channel.

So if it’s not that one, it’s NOT us.

Makes sense?

The same is true for our contact details:

We have an official contact page that lists all our verifiable authorized contacts.

So if it’s NOT on that list, it’s NOT us.

Also on the bottom right you can see a cool chat function that will let you be ABSOLUTELY sure that you are talking to us, and not a fake random guy out there.

Oh and by the way…

Rule of thumb:

If a random guy on Telegram asks you to pay with crypto…

Beware, you can be certain there’s something wrong there.

Also…

If someone says the word “guaranteed“…

Mh, something’s wrong there. Believe it or not, in trading there’s NO guarantee.

And most importantly…

If someone has “investment plans” with crazy unrealistic returns…

Well, be ABSOLUTELY certain there’s something wrong there!

With that said, also keep in mind…

We have NO “investment” service.

We DON’T accept crypto payments.

And we have NO “money management” service.

And obviously! We DON’T ask you for private credentials of any sort.

Simply…

If someone claiming to be us offers you any of these, well…

It’s NOT us.

And either way…

ALWAYS verify who you are talking with by getting in touch with the appropriate verified methods like the official website’s chat function or website’s contact form.

And by the way, you can use these rules with everyone out there.

Not just us, but anyone else out there.

Because fakes are everywhere!

In other words…

ALWAYS double check that you are talking with a verifiable authorized contact.

And to do that, use the website’s information and functions.

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Swing Trading Forex Signals For High Quality Trades 2025

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BESOMEBODYFX

SWING TRADING FOREX SIGNALS

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WHERE TO FIND HIGH QUALITY SWING TRADES?
LET’S BE REAL…

Consistent profits in trading are not that common.

I mean, there’s not a lot of consistent traders out there.

So naturally it’s hard to find signal providers that are… consistent.

I get it!

But you know what?

There are.

So let me show you one of those…

Alright, let’s get to the point:

You want to take great swing trades.

The type of trades that you can set and just let them run without having to stare at the screen for all day.

And more importantly…

The type of trades that are consistent and profitable.

Consistent enough to get your equity line to look like this:

Myfxbook consistent trading performance

Because otherwise… what’s the point?

True.

So…

Where to get the best swing trades?

Well, the best place to get high quality swing signals is BeSomebodyFX.

You can follow the public Telegram channel here:

https://t.me/BeSomebodyFX

That’s where we send insights like this:

Trade example

That turn out like this:

Update on the trade example

Useful, right?

Yes.

These aren’t just random trades thrown at you.

No.

It’s smart, indepth, well timed, and precise swing trades that can help you in your trading.

But hold on a second!

I know you already got what you wanted.

But there’s more to it.

Because this goes way beyond just signals.

I mean…

What sets the best signal providers apart:

Profitability?

Sure.

That’s a big one.

But it doesn’t just stop there.

Because you shouldn’t be following traders just for the profits.

What do I mean?

The educational value of swing trading signals:

Let’s talk about the best aspect in my opinion.

Because our Telegram channel doesn’t just tell you buy here sell there and that’s all.

No!

Every trade is a mini lesson in market dynamics, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and market strategy.

Think about it.

Each trade is filled with indepth context around the idea.

Like this:

Swing trade rationale

You can see the rationale behind the idea, the technical patterns used, and the fundamental context. It’s like having a trading mentor explain their every move.

Cool, right?

And if you want to delve even deeper, there are tons of videos on YouTube that explain the strategies used in these trades. Here’s our Youtube channel:

Youtube channel for Forex trading

As you can see it’s a combination of both technicals and fundamentals.

What’s that about?

Well, the videos above go well into the details.

The point is that you have content covering everything from basic concepts to advanced swing trading strategies. 

You can explore topics at your own pace, steadily improving and advancing your knowledge over time.

Oh and by the way…

How did that EURGBP trade turn out?

Well, here it is:

EURGBP trade update

But wait a second!

Don’t think that every trade you’ll get will hit take profit perfectly.

No.

That’s NOT how it works.

Stop losses are part of the process.

There’s no way around that.

The key is in just hitting those stops and moving to the next trade.

Here’s for instance a position that hit the stop loss:

Trade stop loss

Notice how there’s NO doubling down.

NO moving the stop loss further and further trying to avoid it.

And NO hiding of the losing trade altogether.

Again, that’s part of the process…

And that’s what creates this type of performance:

Trading signals myfxbook performance

Now…

See those choppy periods?

Slow periods in the equity line

Those are times when some trades hit the stop loss, some hit breakeven, and overall, the equity flattens out for a while until the market shifts back in the right direction:

Equity resumes trending higher

That’s professional swing trading.

It’s not all wins.

But it’s consistent overall gains in the right direction with some choppiness here and there that requires a bit of patience and discipline.

Ok.

Does that sound like something you can follow?

I think so.

Let’s analyze what makes a swing trade signal effective:

It’s not just about getting an alert to buy or sell randomly.

No. There’s a meticulous process behind each position, meaning that every trade idea is backed by solid analysis and research.

Where does that start?

With the fundamental context.

Which opens up a whole different debate that touches on monetary policy, risk sentiment, interest rates, economic data.

It’s wide subject and if you are interested in that we have a book guide called The Real Fundamental Analysis that goes into all the details you need to know about:

The real fundamental analysis book cover

And then…

The fundamental context is complemented with the technical context too.

Because you know…

“Being right” and “profitable trade” are not always synonyms in trading.

I mean, you can be right and get stopped out because of a wrong entry point.

You enter a trend trade.

The market starts to pull back against your position.

You stop the position out.

And the market just turns in your expected direction.

Like this:

The importance of timing trade entries

Look, that’s nothing new.

The market does that!

And so to do that you need some technical analysis to time the trades correctly.

The point?

The point is that a solid trade idea is not just technicals, it’s not just fundamentals, it’s… both.

For instance, let me show you a position we took on NZDCAD that shows this very well.

Here it is:

NZDCAD swing trade idea

Notice how yes we have the bullish fundamental bias, but at the same time we have the price action and technical confirmation on the chart.

Makes sense?

Awesome.

That ended up being a great trade…

Trade take profit

And that’s the point.

When fundamentals and technicals are aligned that’s where it interesting.

And you know…

I can go on and on with examples but the point is simple.

Fundamentals are great.

Technicals are great.

But neither of those alone in isolation are enough to be consistent.

It’s when you combine both together that you get those high quality, high conviction trades to follow.

Those that you are comfortable taking, holding, and just letting them run.

That’s the difference.

And that’s what you need to know:

In other words…

The BeSomebodyFX public Telegram channel allows you to follow great trades, learn from it, and make you a better trader.

You get the trades, the rationale behind them, and the educational content to back it up.

Solid, right?

It sure is.

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Crypto Global Macro Q3 2024

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BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q3 2024
bULLISH IT IS. HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW…

Ok.

How can I say “we are bullish” in three words to keep it simple?

Mh…

Got it!

We are…

Bullish!

Did I get that right?

Cool 😉

But you want a bit more than just a simple… we are bullish.

So let me show you what’s going on behind the charts.

First of all…

If you follow our crypto updates regularly you will remember in the previous crypto update we turned bearish.

Price was near 70k and has been in a 10k range between 70k and 60k since.

And in this range things have changed:

And…

To make it simple…

We are bullish.

Did I say that already?

Oh, yes!

I should be listing the reasons now.

Ok, first of all…

US inflation is slowing down:

US growth is still holding up well.

And central banks across the world are starting to reduce policy restrictions:

So?

So all these factors create a positive macro context for risk assets.

You might have noticed on our public Telegram channel we are trading that on the S&P500 too:

And as you know…

At least you should know!

Crypto is also a risk asset.

It’s a fairly lagging one at the moment.

I mean, the NASDAQ this quarter is up 34% in June while BTC is down 12%, and…

Oh, wait a second!

Want to know an interesting fact about that?

WHEN THE NASDAQ IS UP WHILE BTC IS DOWN:

Ok.

Bear with me a second.

This gets a bit detailed with lots of numbers, but hear me out…

Historically when the NASDAQ closes the quarter up while BTC instead closes it down the quarter thereafter usually sees BTC up quite a bit.

Let me show you:

True.

Not a lot of data there to call this a reliable pattern but it holds true even before 2020.

And even more interesting…

In a way proving this is not as random as it may look.

When the opposite happens, so NASDAQ down but BTC up, usually the quarter thereafter sees BTC down:

Interesting, right?

I agree!

WITH THAT SAID…

Bigger picture over the next couple of months suggests higher towards 80k.

Now, if you have been able to bear through the US presidential debate on Thursday you will also know that…

Biden has aged quite a bit.

But besides that…

You will also know that Trump has remarkably extended his lead in the polls.

Wait!

What does this have to do with crypto?

Trump is pro crypto… whatever that means.

So his lead in the election could at some point be seen as positive.

Now…

That’s a REALLY far fetched view and it’s NOT by itself the only reason to be bullish, at all.

There’s MANY other more valid reasons!

But…

I don’t mind adding Trump’s lead in the US election to those many reasons to be bullish.

Alright…

That makes it.

Any downside risk scenarios?

Yes.

A recession.

That’s the scenario where all risk assets would be dumped down quite a bit.

But that’s by far NOT the base case scenario right now.

If it was we wouldn’t be bullish.

Sounds about right.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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The Real Fundamental Analysis

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BESOMEBODYFX

THE REAL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

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A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO FOREX FUNDAMENTALS
WHAT’S THE BEST BOOK ABOUT TRADING WITH FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS?

I hear that question A LOT.

Traders need a SOLID textbook resource to understand fundamentals.

I get it.

And so I did it.

The real fundamental analysis book cover

We have condensed all the fundamental knowledge you need in about 128 pages.

A book guide of 128 pages that teaches you the REAL fundamental analysis, NOT the average type of stuff that you can find anywhere else.

Real, practical, actionable fundamentals.

The ones we trade in our public Telegram channel to get trades like this:

Trade example
Update on the trade example

And also in the Private Network to get trades like this:

Trade signal with pending order

And I can go on and on with examples.

But the point is…

We have condensed all that knowledge at the price of just a regular book.

Literally, in about 128 pages you will get MORE than what you would find in any overpriced course out there.

For real.

From the basics of understanding the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy.

To more advanced subjects like bonds and yields.

To practical applications like knowing how to keep track of it all efficiently.

And of course, a LOT more.

In other words…

This book guide is NOT just about the theory.

It’s about the REAL fundamentals, the ones that you can REALLY use to improve, refine, and optimize your trading to be more consistent.

Now, don’t get me wrong.

Will you instantly become an expert at fundamentals after reading it?

No. That’s NOT how it works.

But…

Will you be able to finally understand the subject in a way that is applicable to your trading to have a SOLID foundation from where you can improve and fine tune your strategy to include both technicals and fundamentals EFFICIENTLY?

Yes, without a doubt.

So…

Where to get it?

If all what we mentioned here sounds like a good suit for you.

You can download the full guide from Gumroad’s marketplace…

Available on Gumroad right now.

You will also find a preview of the first 9 pages there 😉

With that also said…

If you need more information, tap the chat at the bottom right and reach out with your questions.

We reply fairly quickly, usually.

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Crypto Global Macro Q2 2024

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BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q2 2024
TURNING NEUTRAL TO POTENTIALLY BEARISH. HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW…

Crypto is in full bull market mode.

People are looking for the next 100X coin, and BTC is going to 100k.

Looks and feels euphoric.

Risk assets are all benefiting from the same surge in risk appetite fueled by the FED’s decision to soon start cutting rates.

With that in mind…

We took profits on our positions.

In the previous crypto update we have mentioned how yes the context was still bullish, but…

How risks were rising and how we were looking to take profit.

And we did.

The clear bullish phase was from when the FED stopped hiking rates.

We positioned for that in the Private Network with both S&P500 and ETH longs. We took profits on the S&P500 longs in mid January, and we took profits on the ETH longs in mid February.

Yes, a bit too early.

Things went much after that.

But we caught a good chunk of the run anyway.

Now…

We have two policy scenarios ahead.

One where the FED starts cutting rates.

Which, counterintuitively, is NOT exacty bullish.

Remember? The 2019 type of price action:

When the FED starts to cut rates the economy takes a turn, usually.

And that’s NOT bullish for risk assets, crypto included.

While instead, the other type of scenario is one where inflation bottoms…

Forcing the FED to keep rates higher for longer.

Ok, hold on a second…

Two slightly higher than expected inflation prints don’t make a resurge in inflation the base case. I doubt high inflation is going to be the scenario. But it’s a possibility.

So, you get the point.

Risks for risk assets are… rising.

Whether that’s a recession, a resurge in inflation, or both together. We can’t know.

But what we can know is that the risk reward from a technical and fundamental perspective is NOT favorable for staying long right now.

And so we took profits.

What to keep in mind…

The straightforward bullish phase was from when the FED stopped hiking rates.

Now the fundamental context starts to turn more mixed, less clear, simply…

Riskier.

Keep that in mind.

Farily straightforward.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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Crypto Global Macro Q1 2024

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BESOMEBODYFX

CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO

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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q1 2024
STILL LONG AND BULLISH. sO, WHERE DO WE want to see to take profit?

Alright.

Now it’s time to start talking about what to look for to start taking profits.

In the previous crypto update we have mentioned how dip buying was the way to go for the quarter.

Both for fundamental reasons:

But also, seasonally:

Now…

What’s the next story?
MONETARY POLICY CONTEXT:

Remember rate cuts?

Seems such a distant thing, isn’t it?

I mean, the FED hasn’t been cutting rates since 2020.

And at the start of the year it looked like they weren’t going to cut for a long long while either.

But that’s not the case.

Inflation is almost back near FED’s target in the US.

And it’s basically already at the ECB’s target in Europe.

That’s to say…

Rate cuts for most central banks are NOT a distant thing right now.

At all.

The FED with their latest dot plot is also officially expecting to deliver at least three rate cuts this year:

And Powell confirmed that at the latest FOMC:

So…

What do we need to know about that?

Well, to illustrate the point correctly, let me show you just two charts.

Two simple but VERY important charts…

Alright.

First, here’s BTC in 2019 with some notes attached about the fundamental context in that period:

Sounds familiar, right?

Yes.

It’s similar to the price action and the context over the past two quarters.

It sure is.

FED stopped hiking rates, and BTC started a small bull run.

Same exact fundamental story.

Same exact price behaviour.

That’s fundamental analysis.

Now, let me show you the part that matters right now.

Here’s how that chart continues…

Interesting, right?

I mean, rate cuts are…

Bearish?

Yes.

And no.

But also… yes.

Think about it this way…

Usually, when the FED starts cutting rates, the economy is about to tumble.

And that brings down risk assets with it.

The reason?

Because the FED lags, a lot.

So when they do see the need for rate cuts, that means that the economy behind the curtains has taken a turn already and a recession is not that far.

And that’s when it’s time to take profit.

Makes sense?

Awesome.

So with that said.

what to keep in mind…

Whether that’s crypto, equities, and whatnot.

When the FED thinks it’s time to cut, we square the longs.

That simple.

So keep that CONTEXT in mind and you will be able to take profit on this bull run at the right timing.

But also keep in mind…

Until the FED starts seriously talking about cuts, we remain long and bullish.

I mean, the FED will likely start cutting rates in March.

So there’s still soom room for a bit more upside until the first rate cut.

Meaning, we can still ride a bit more upside.

And that’s all there’s needed to know right now.

If you want to get alerted when we publish the next update you can leave us your email down below.

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