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BESOMEBODYFX
CRYPTO GLOBAL MACRO Q3 2024
bULLISH IT IS. HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW…
Ok.
How can I say “we are bullish” in three words to keep it simple?
Mh…
Got it!
We are…
Bullish!
Did I get that right?
Cool 😉
But you want a bit more than just a simple… we are bullish.
So let me show you what’s going on behind the charts.
First of all…
If you follow our crypto updates regularly you will remember in the previous crypto update we turned bearish.
Price was near 70k and has been in a 10k range between 70k and 60k since.
And in this range things have changed:
You know, Powell might be right, either way with the latest CPI print inflation risks are fading quite a bit, at least for the time being, so with that macro risk fading risk assets are in a much better position, context bullish BTC again now#BTCUSD #BTC #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/1aZMHYw2aF— BeSomebodyFX (@BeSomebodyFX) May 15, 2024
And…
From BofA, before the latest CPI tho, that inflation risk should be fading a bit now, again, good for risk assets such as BTC, at least for now until the next CPI#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/GlM9UNxghH— BeSomebodyFX (@BeSomebodyFX) May 16, 2024
To make it simple…
We are bullish.
Did I say that already?
Oh, yes!
I should be listing the reasons now.
Ok, first of all…
US inflation is slowing down:
US growth is still holding up well.
And central banks across the world are starting to reduce policy restrictions:
So?
So all these factors create a positive macro context for risk assets.
You might have noticed on our public Telegram channel we are trading that on the S&P500 too:
And as you know…
At least you should know!
Crypto is also a risk asset.
It’s a fairly lagging one at the moment.
I mean, the NASDAQ this quarter is up 34% in June while BTC is down 12%, and…
Oh, wait a second!
Want to know an interesting fact about that?
WHEN THE NASDAQ IS UP WHILE BTC IS DOWN:
Ok.
Bear with me a second.
This gets a bit detailed with lots of numbers, but hear me out…
Historically when the NASDAQ closes the quarter up while BTC instead closes it down the quarter thereafter usually sees BTC up quite a bit.
Let me show you:
True.
Not a lot of data there to call this a reliable pattern but it holds true even before 2020.
And even more interesting…
In a way proving this is not as random as it may look.
When the opposite happens, so NASDAQ down but BTC up, usually the quarter thereafter sees BTC down:
Interesting, right?
I agree!
WITH THAT SAID…
Bigger picture over the next couple of months suggests higher towards 80k.
Now, if you have been able to bear through the US presidential debate on Thursday you will also know that…
Biden has aged quite a bit.
But besides that…
You will also know that Trump has remarkably extended his lead in the polls.
Wait!
What does this have to do with crypto?
Trump is pro crypto… whatever that means.
So his lead in the election could at some point be seen as positive.
Now…
That’s a REALLY far fetched view and it’s NOT by itself the only reason to be bullish, at all.
There’s MANY other more valid reasons!
But…
I don’t mind adding Trump’s lead in the US election to those many reasons to be bullish.
Alright…
That makes it.
Any downside risk scenarios?
Yes.
A recession.
That’s the scenario where all risk assets would be dumped down quite a bit.
But that’s by far NOT the base case scenario right now.
If it was we wouldn’t be bullish.
Sounds about right.
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